05/16/2026
📊 Week Ending May 15, 2026 — Economic, Housing & Mortgage Recap
Not a good week for Inflation/Mortgage Rates. Here's what moved the market:
🔥 INFLATION SHOCK — APRIL CPI
April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year — the highest since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus. Energy prices surged 17.9% annually, gasoline is up 28.4%, and real wages fell 0.5% for the month. Workers are losing ground to prices. The Iran war is not just a geopolitical story — it's an inflation story.
🏦 NEW FED CHAIR — KEVIN WARSH
Jerome Powell handed the keys to Kevin Warsh. Warsh inherits a hot inflation print, a divided FOMC, and a bond market that's already repricing for "higher for longer." CME FedWatch now shows zero rate cuts priced in for 2026. J.P. Morgan sees rates on hold through year-end — with a possible hike in early 2027 if inflation doesn't cool.
📈 TREASURY YIELDS SPIKE
The 10-yr Treasury surged to 4.59% on Friday. The 30-yr bond crossed 5.12% — its highest since May 2025. When the long end moves like this, mortgage rates follow.
🏠 MORTGAGE RATES — THE REAL PICTURE
Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed 6.36% for the 30-yr fixed — technically a 1 bps dip. But here's the catch: Freddie's survey captured last Thursday, when Iran briefly reviewed a U.S. peace proposal and markets rallied. That optimism lasted less than 24 hours. Daily surveys on May 15 show rates at 6.47–6.50% — and heading higher if the 10-yr holds above 4.5%.
→ 30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac, May 14): 6.36%
→ 30-yr fixed (Bankrate, May 15): 6.47%
→ 15-yr fixed: 5.71%
→ Still ~45 bps better than a year ago (6.81%)
🏡 HOUSING MARKET
Existing home sales ticked up 0.2% in April to a 4.02M annual rate. Inventory rose to 1.47M units (4.4 months of supply). Median sale price hit a record $417,700. Active listings are up 1.5% year-over-year. Absorbed listings up 17.5% and new pendings up 10.7% — the market is processing inventory more efficiently, even if it isn't booming.
Days on market: 56 days nationally (up from 49 a year ago). Sellers anchored to 2024 comps are watching listings go stale. Pricing discipline is still the deciding factor. NJ remains a different story. Strong demand continues throughout the state.
📌 WHAT TO WATCH
→ 10-yr Treasury: if it pushes to 4.75–5%, expect 30-yr rates to test 6.75%
→ June 10: next CPI report — the most important data point of the summer
→ Warsh's first FOMC press conference: will he signal tolerance for higher inflation or draw a hard line?
The path to lower rates still runs through the Persian Gulf — and right now, that road is closed.
For all your real estate needs, reach out to me. 👇
[email protected]
908-400-5599
