08/09/2026
Here is this week's data, and here is the receipt.
Expired dropped from 818 to 422.
Sales settled from 1,403 to 1,215.
The spike was the calendar. It passed, right on schedule.
That is the difference between reading the data and reacting to it, and it is why I now do this on both sides, the market and the mortgage, in one place.
Rates moved again. 6.69%, up from 6.66%.
The fifth straight weekly increase for the 30-year, and it just crossed above where it sat a year ago.
The small relief buyers got earlier this year is gone.
Here is what the climb costs, because a rate is abstract until it hits your budget.
The monthly payment that bought a $500,000 loan in late June buys about $487,000 today.
Same check.
About $13,000 less house.
Six weeks.
That is the squeeze, and it is arithmetic, not opinion.
Underneath the noise, the market is steady.
New listings holding near 1,500. Sellers still cutting far more than raising, about fifteen to one.
Sold and pending running neck and neck.
Not a boom.
Not a bust.
A market finding its level.
Here is the part the two separate stories miss.
Inventory is building, so buyers have more to choose from. But every rate uptick shrinks the budget that choice runs on.
More homes to pick from.
Less money to pick with.
That is why pricing discipline matters MORE right now, not less.
If you're buying: your options are growing and your buying power is not.
Know your real number before you shop, because it moved again this week.
If you're selling: buyers are doing math on every dollar.
Price to today's rate, not last spring's.
The listings that expired were mostly priced to a rate that is gone.
For my REALTOR® friends: your clients feel the headline panic without the context.
You are the context.
Priced right, it sells.
Priced wrong, it sits.
And right keeps moving as rates climb.
Thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing?
Let's run your real numbers.
Your rate.
Your budget.
Your plan.
Agents, if your clients keep asking what rates mean, let's talk.
New edition every Sunday at 7:30.
Call or text 631-814-4060.
Email [email protected].
Education, not financial or legal advice.
Rates are national averages from Freddie Mac.
Your rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type. For your situation, talk to a qualified professional.