10/01/2026
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Baltic Roundup | September 2026
A look back on September in the Baltic states
INDRA EKMANIS
OCT 1
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Image: Unsplash | Alexander Kovalev
While summer has been a slower period for the Baltic Roundup, the last three months have been a flurry of activity in Latvia as the country entered its pre-election season in June. The 14 parties running for parliament have sought to curry favor among the electorate — passing out pamphlets on street corners, aggressively posting on social media, and plastering the faces of their leading candidates on the side of buildings. Through October 3, voters in Latvia — and its growing diaspora, which makes up a third of the eligible voters in the Riga constituency — will cast their ballot for their representatives.
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The political spectrum in Latvia is not linear. Politicians who diverge on minority language protections, for example, may share the same stances on family values. And, while parties easily come and go, many of the people behind them are mainstays in the political scene. As of the September LSM/SKDS poll, seven parties seem poised to pass the 5% threshold needed to enter the Saeima. (Of those polled, 19% say they are undecided and another 15% say they won’t vote.) The top parties, in order of current popularity, are:
• United List (Apvienotais saraksts, AS) — conservative/regionalist party and current coalition leader under Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs;
• Sovereign Power/Alliance of Young Latvians (Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši, SV/AJ) — populist, traditional values-oriented party focused on Russian minority politics;
• Latvia First (Latvija pirmajā vietā, LPV) populist, Christian right nationalism centered around the leadership of so-called oligarch Ainārs Šlesers;
• Progressives (Progresīvie, PRO) — social democrats, proponents of green politics and pro-Europeanism;
• National Alliance (Nacionālā Apvienība, NA) — right-wing nationalists, soft Eurosceptics, anti-Russian;
• Union of Greens and Farmers (Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, ZZS) — agrarian, regionalist, economic nationalists, soft-Eurosceptics; and
• New Unity (Jaunā vienotība, JV) — center-right, pro-European party that has led the government for 14 of the last 17 years.
Where these parties stand on defense and security, economic and demographic stability, and social values has been central to the debates in these elections. (Voters can use LSM Party Sorter and Spektri.lv as resources to determine how they align with the party lists. I also recommend reading commentary by journalists Pauls Raudseps and Mike Collier, and historian Una Bergmane, or watching the Baltic Initiative’s recent event below discussing the elections.)
The first of these topics comes as no surprise. In May, Latvia’s governing coalition fell, its demise accelerated by a drone incursion in eastern Latvia. Alerts continued throughout the summer as Russia intensified grey zone or subthreshold attacks in the region and Europe more broadly. Many read these as efforts to intimidate citizens into pressuring their governments to ease support for Ukraine; Latvia has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest advocates. Among the highest-polling parties, SV/AJ stands alone in advocating for reductions in defense spending and ending support to Ukraine; its politicians are also unable to unequivocally affirm that Crimea is Ukraine.
Security concerns merge with economic questions, as politicians debate the merits of completely stopping trade with Russia and Belarus versus renewing economic partnerships across the eastern borders (LPV, SV/AJ). Spending on expensive infrastructure has raised hackles, including over Rail Baltica — the beleaguered project attempting to link the Baltic countries with European standard railway gauges — and airBaltic, the national airline undergoing financial restructuring with the help of state funds. Inflation and the cost of living remain kitchen table issues, and many parties have pledged to amend tax structures.
Meanwhile, the existential threat of a declining birthrate has prompted many parties to include increased social support for families in their platforms, often in tandem with very “traditional” understandings of gender roles (LPV, SV/AJ, NA, AS, ZZS). Much lip service has been paid towards increasing re-emigration of the diaspora. On the other hand, bemoaning the so-called dangers of immigration from third countries — particularly students from South Asia — has been a main theme of the NA, which has also dealt with fallout from recent racist incidents linked to its politicians.
Social norms and values writ large are also at play. Last year, the Saeima’s decision to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on the prevention of violence against women less than two years after ratifying the treaty sparked one of the largest popular backlashes in recent history. Politicians opted to kick the can down the road, meaning the outcome of this election will determine whether Latvia remains a signatory (PRO, JV) or if it will back away from European consensus in favor of “traditional” values (LPV, SV/AJ, ZZS). NA and AS have recently declined to solidify their position, though both parties voted to withdraw from the convention last year.
Beyond party stances on the issues themselves, questions of election security are also at play. The State Security Service (Valsts drošības dienests, VDD) has “not identified any significant and systematic efforts by Russia or other countries hostile to Latvia to influence the results of the Saeima elections,” though VDD has not ruled out the possibility. The role of artificial intelligence is also concerning. Researchers noted that chatbots are providing different assessments of political parties, depending on whether users write in Latvian or Russian. Russian responses draw from compromised information, and “the researchers stress that AI algorithms can be manipulated by flooding the network with ‘convenient’ content.” Votes will be hand-counted this year, a decision made after glitches plagued ballot counting machines in last year’s municipal elections.
Latvia’s political structure is such that no party is likely to win an outright majority. Nor is it guaranteed that the party with the most votes will succeed in forming a government. In 2018, despite JV suffering the biggest electoral loss and entering parliament with the fewest seats, Krišjānis Kariņš ended up not only as prime minister, but as Latvia’s longest-serving democratic head of government.
Given the ideological diversity of the leading parties, coalition building will likely be difficult. But in the starkest formulations, the question is whether or not Latvia will continue its long trajectory toward deeper European integration and solidification of democratic norms and support for Ukraine, or if voters will place their trust in populist candidates who embrace a turn toward more strongman politics, normalization of the relationship with Russia, and an emphasis on exclusionary values. How the chips fall will significantly affect not only Latvia’s domestic politics, but also its international and security outlook.
Now, more news from the region.
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Politics
Estonia’s Riigikogu elected Ülle Madise as the country’s new head of state. A well-known constitutional lawyer with a distinguished career in government, she will be sworn in as president in October.
Lithuania’s anti-fraud agency searched the National Paying Agency, which disburses EU agricultural subsidies, over accusations of corruption. Law enforcement officers also searched the homes of five members of the Nemunas Dawn party’s board as part of an investigation into car rentals for the party. A member of Lithuania’s Central Electoral Commission is also facing an ethics inquiry over failing to disclose ties to Nemunas Dawn.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s defense minister, resigned following a €70 million procurement controversy in which the government had used EU funds to buy artillery shells for Ukraine from companies that had no history of producing such shells. Pevkur said he was not involved in the contract, but recognized his responsibility for the ministry.
Latvia’s Minister of Welfare Reinis Uzulnieks, among the leaders of political party ZZS running in the October elections, was ousted from his post after being caught drunk driving, though he remains on the ballot.
Security & Defense
Estonian officials declared the August fire at Estonian drone maker Milrem Robotics an act of arson commissioned by Russian security services. The suspects were apprehended in Latvia and were remanded to custody in Estonia.
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in the Kaišiadorys district, about 60 miles west of Vilnius in mid-September, the first shootdown in Lithuania. The Baltic countries have asked the European Commission for €500 million to support drone defense efforts.
Latvia’s Saeima approved plans to deploy up to 20 soldiers to demine the Strait of Hormuz as part of a multinational operation.
Latvia and Estonia began talks on joining France’s nuclear deterrence scheme. Lithuania began removing its constitutional ban on hosting nuclear weapons.
A new rotation of US troops is set to arrive soon in Lithuania. More than 1,000 troops finished their rotation in Lithuania this summer, leaving questions about their replacements as the US reevaluates its position in Europe. The US will also send a new unit to Estonia in November.
In August, a cyberattack on Latvia’s Road Traffic Safety Directorate (CSDD) breached the personal data of 1.2 million people, amounting to about two-thirds of the population.
Society
The region experienced one of the most intense summer storms in decades, which led to felled trees, blocked roads, and power outages lasting days. It was a severe test of critical infrastructure and crisis preparedness leaving much to improve.
Kaunas held its second Pride March with some 500 participants demanding legalization of same-sex partnerships, trans-inclusive healthcare, and LGBTQ+ representation in school. It also served as a platform for solidarity with Palestinians.
Lithuanian police opened a hate-incitement investigation after a biker group harassed worshipers at a Kaunas mosque, including disrupting prayers with nationalist slogans, revved motorcycles, and brandishing a pig’s head. A video showing a Quran being burned in Vilnius was published later. Mufti Aleksandras Beganskas has called for greater protections for Lithuania's Muslim community.
More than 15,000 educators and 400 institutions in Estonia took part in a warning strike over teachers’ salaries.
The Baltic countries posted mixed results in OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). In Latvia, student performance in science, mathematics and reading fell to a new low, though digital skills are better than the OECD average. Lithuania was above average in all four assessed areas for the first time. Estonia was among the top 10 education systems and ranked highly in science and math, but had its lowest reading score to date.
Foreign Affairs
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia imposed national sanctions against two Russian oligarchs after they were removed from the EU list during debates over renewing sanctions. And, Sergey Fedotov, the father of party leader Jūlija Stepaņenko (SV/AJ), was blacklisted in Latvia, after it emerged that the company he led in Russia was providing anti-tank barriers to Russia’s Belgorod region and Russian-occupied Donetsk.
The Baltic countries discussed joint measures to curb transit of Russian and Belarusian grain. Latvian lawmakers voted to allow increasing the price of Russian grain transit through Latvia by 300%, though this has not yet come into force.
John Coale, US special envoy for Belarus, stopped in Vilnius on his way to broker a deal with Minsk to exchange political prisoners for sanctions relief; 25 prisoners were brought to Lithuania from Belarus. In August, CIA head John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow, transiting through Riga.
JBANC announced that the Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus has become the largest regional caucus with 38 members from both sides of the aisle.
Infrastructure
Latvia’s national airline airBaltic filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. The airline is attempting to restructure its debt and plans to shrink its fleet.
All three Baltic countries agreed to extend Rail Baltica’s deadline to 2034, though Lithuania pledged to stick to the 2030 deadline for its section.
The Baltic International Security Centre’s recently published barometer notes that financial markets are applying only a small geopolitical risk premium to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and foreign investors are reinvesting at scale.
Aitäh, paldies and ačiū,
Indra Ekmanis
Baltic Bulletin Editor
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