Clive Capital

10/14/2026

The extension deadline is tomorrow, October 15.

Here is the most expensive misunderstanding about it.

Most people think the extension gave them more time to pay. It did not. It gave them more time to file the paperwork. If you owed money in April, interest has been running since April.

And the two penalties are not the same size.

Not filing costs you 5% of what you owe per month, up to 25%.

Not paying costs you 0.5% per month, up to 25%.

That is ten times the penalty, for the same month.

So if you cannot pay the whole thing tomorrow, file anyway and send what you can. You will have avoided the penalty that is ten times larger. People do the opposite constantly, because not filing feels like hiding and filing feels like admitting it.

Second thing. There is no second extension. October 15 is the end of the line for individual returns. If you have been assuming you can push it again, you cannot.

Third. If you are stuck waiting on a K-1, you are not imagining it. A K-1 is the form a fund or partnership sends showing your share of its income, and they run late constantly. It is the most common reason anyone files at the last minute.

Now the uncomfortable part.

Almost nothing you do tomorrow changes what you owe. The decisions that set this number happened before December 31 last year.

Tomorrow is paperwork. The part that actually moves the number is open right now, for next year.

10/13/2026

If you rent, your negotiating position just got better. If you own apartments, it just got harder.

Here is what changed, step by step, because almost nobody is explaining the mechanics.

Immigration into the US fell about 82% in 2025, which John Burns Research calls the lowest level in more than 40 years.

First question. Does that mean houses are hitting the market?

No, and this is the part people get wrong. New arrivals overwhelmingly rent. Harvard's housing centre found that immigrant households in the country five years or less own at a rate of about 16%.

So the effect does not show up in home listings. It shows up in apartment buildings.

And it already is. In John Burns' survey, 40% of apartment developers and investors said immigration policy was hurting leasing and occupancy. In Florida, two thirds said it.

If you are an American renting right now, that is straightforwardly good news. Fewer applicants per unit means more leverage than you have had in years. If your lease is up, this is a year to negotiate rather than accept.

Second question, and this is the one investors should be sitting with.

Who fills those units over the next decade?

Harvard projected that by 2040, foreign-born households would be the primary source of new housing demand in this country. If that source is smaller, demand has to come from somewhere else, and that somewhere else is young Americans forming households.

Right now that pipeline is thin. One in four Americans aged 25 to 34 has delayed forming a household and still lives with parents or roommates. Births are at a 40 year low.

Which means the most important number in US housing over the next fifteen years is not immigration at all. It is whether young Americans can afford to move out, pair up and buy.

That is an affordability question and a wage question, and it is worth getting right regardless of where you land politically.

So if you own residential real estate, stop watching migration headlines and start watching household formation among 25 to 34 year olds. That is the number that decides what your asset is worth in 2040.

10/13/2026

We are opening Iron Horse Energy Fund III, and we are doing a live session on Thursday.

We will chat through the honest version of why oil and why now, because 'prices are up' is not a reason to invest in anything.

Oil has run hard. Brent was near $104 at the start of October, up about 57% from a year earlier. That part everyone can see.

Here is the part that matters more.

Expensive energy is one of the reasons long term interest rates just hit a 24 year high. The ten year Treasury closed at 5.29% on September 30. When energy is expensive, inflation stays sticky, and when inflation stays sticky, borrowing costs stay high. Energy is not sitting off to the side of this economy. It is one of the things driving it.

That cuts both ways, and we will say so on the call.

A high price today tells you almost nothing about whether a specific well is a good investment. What matters is the price the deal was underwritten at, and what your return looks like if oil goes back to $65. Anyone looks brilliant at $104.

So here is what Thursday is actually for.

We are going to walk through how our existing oil and gas deals are performing, not only the new one. Most sponsors open a new fund and hope you do not ask about the last one.
Then the new fund. Then questions, until we run out of them. Bring the hard ones. Bring the ones that feel awkward to ask a sponsor. That is the entire reason we do this live instead of emailing a deck.

Thursday, October 15. 6:00 to 7:00 PM Eastern.

Register: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_XrAnnDa2Sgiaq3G4oSRGpw

Cannot make it? Register anyway and we will send the recording.

Join us as Clive Capital Co-Founder Keshav Kolur, alongside Courtney Moeller and Alexis Hildebrand, walks you through one of the most compelling energy investment opportunities of 2026 and explains why the window to act is closing fast. In this webinar, we will unpack the geopolitical and macroecono...

10/10/2026

I talk to people every week who make seven figures writing software and have never once been told what to do with it.

Not bad people. Not careless people. Smart, hardworking engineers who optimize systems for a living, paying the highest effective tax rate of anyone in the country, with a 401k and a brokerage account and nothing else.

Nobody ever told them there was more. That is the whole problem.

There is an entire industry built on charging you before it will tell you anything. Pay the retainer, then we will discuss strategy. We decided early that we would not do that. We tell people what we know, and some of them take it and go do it somewhere else. That is fine. That is the cost of working this way, and we would rather pay it than become the thing we did not like.

Honestly, this is personal. Our parents worked their whole lives and nobody sat them down and explained any of this. Nobody told them what was available to them. We cannot go back and fix that. We can do it for the people in front of us now.

So thank you to everyone who has asked us a hard question, pushed back on an assumption, or trusted us with real money. We do not take it lightly, and we work hard not to let you down.

10/09/2026

Why does oil and gas get a tax break that real estate doesn't?

Here is the actual reason, including the half nobody posts.

The tax code has two buckets. Passive and active. Your salary is active. Most real estate investments are passive. Losses in one bucket cannot reach income in the other. That is the whole rule, and it is why a big real estate K-1 loss usually cannot touch your W-2.

Oil and gas has one carve out. A working interest in an oil or gas property is not passive. Which means those deductions can reach your salary.

But read the rest of the sentence. The carve out only applies if you hold that interest in a form that does not limit your liability.

That is the trade. The government is not rewarding oil. It is paying you for accepting risk. You take on real liability, you get the deduction that reaches your W-2.

Flip it around and it disappears. Hold the exact same working interest inside an entity that caps your exposure, and you are passive again. Same asset. Same wells. No carve out.

This is why the structure page matters more than the returns page. The structure decides whether the tax treatment you were shown is the tax treatment you actually get.

Two more things. Percentage depletion is generally capped at 65% of your taxable income. And a deduction on a dry hole is still a loss.

Did you know the break was tied to liability? Or had you only heard the deduction half?

10/08/2026

In July our investments distributed $98,318 to investors, and that's not even the full picture.

Private credit: $53,626
Oil and gas: $44,325
Multifamily: $368

One important note on what is counted. This is monthly-distribution deals only. Several of our investments distribute quarterly, and those payments have not come in yet, so they are not in this number. When they land, they get reported on their own. A month like this one is not the full picture of what the portfolio paid.

Two things worth saying about the shape, not the total.

Private debt pays like a metronome. The number barely moves month to month. That predictability is the entire product. It is not exciting, and it is not supposed to be.

Energy pays like a drum solo. Quiet months and loud ones. Anyone showing you an energy investment as a smooth line is showing you an average, not a month.

A portfolio usually wants both, for completely different reasons. One pays the bills. The other decides where the year lands.

10/07/2026

The Fed sets rates. On September 30, the bond market ignored it.

The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.29%, a 24 year high. The federal funds rate that same day was 3.88%. Long rates are sitting 140 basis points above the rate the Fed actually controls.

The Fed is not doing this. The bond market is.

Here is why that matters even if you never buy a Treasury.

5.29% is now your floor. The US government will pay you 5.29% a year to do nothing. No tenants. No vacancies. No lockup. You can sell it any morning you want.

So every other investment you own has one job. Beat 5.29% by enough to justify what it puts you through.

Run your own portfolio through that test.

Stocks. The S&P's cyclically adjusted earnings yield is roughly 2.4%. That is less than half the Treasury. You are not being paid to take stock risk today. You are betting on growth to make up the difference. Over 20 years that bet has usually worked. Over the next three, nobody knows.

Real estate. Cap rates are around 6.3%. That is about one point over Treasuries, in exchange for tenants, repairs, insurance, and money you cannot get back on demand.

Private credit, energy, anything private. Same test. How much over 5.29%, and what am I giving up to get it?

None of this says sell. It says your 2021 math is dead. The 10-year paid 1.47% then. There was nowhere else to go. That is no longer true.

Pick your riskiest holding. Is it paying you enough over 5.29%?

10/06/2026

We told our investors to expect an 80% deduction in year one. They got about 95%.

That was Iron Horse Energy Fund I. We raised $3.45 million. $3.27 million came back to investors as a year one deduction. For investors in the 37% bracket, that erased more than $1.2 million in taxes owed.

Now here is the question we get asked least and should get asked most.

Oil is high right now. What happens when it isn't?

Because that is the real question. Not the deduction. Anyone can sell you a deduction. The deduction is the easy part. The hard part is what your money does when oil drops to $55 and stays there for two years.

Most sponsors will not answer that in public. So we are going to.

Live investor session, Thursday October 15, 6:00 to 7:00 PM Eastern. Here is the agenda.

How our previous energy investments are actually performing. Fund I and Fund II, real numbers.

The oil price we underwrote Fund III at, and what your returns look like below it. We are putting that on a slide.

What the fund owns and where. Specific assets, not a category.

How the tax treatment works, and where people get it wrong.

The fee structure, in plain numbers.

Then questions until we run out of them.

Register here:

Join us as Clive Capital Co-Founders Keshav Kolur and John Lai, alongside Courtney Moeller, walk you through one of the most compelling energy investment opportunities of 2026 and why the window to act is closing fast. In this webinar, we will unpack the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces driving...

10/02/2026

When a founder steps away, the family business gets sold about 99% of the time.

JB Wautier shared that estimate on our podcast. He has spent 20+ years buying companies, many from families. He was Chief Investment Officer at BC Partners and now sits on two of Bill Ackman's boards.

JB once bought a company from a founder who grew it from nothing to $2 billion in sales. The founder tried everything to find someone to take over. He gave his kids internships and explained the business to them. None of them wanted it.

When he finally decided to sell, he stopped the bidding early. An extra $100 million did not matter to him. He picked JB's team because he trusted them to protect his people and culture.

JB sees 3 warning signs that a family's wealth will slip away:

1. The kids have no interest in what you built.
2. You never passed your values down to them.
3. The family has drifted apart and only gets together at Christmas.

He believes about half of this is in your control.

His family wrote a short "family charter" when their youngest was 4 or 5. It names 3 core values: courage, honesty, and caring for others. He told his kids they could choose any path in life, as long as they lived by those values.

Building wealth takes drive, but keeping it takes a plan. Start by writing down your family's values. Then share them with your kids early.

Watch full episode here: https://youtu.be/4bv1qA9j8DQ

Analyze the Bernard Arnault strategy to see how high-level business...

09/28/2026

Brent crude is trading near $100 a barrel. The agency that counts the barrels thinks it averages $74 next year.

Both of those can be true at once. Here is why the gap exists, and what it means if someone shows you an oil deal.

Right now supply is constrained. Exports out of the Middle East have been squeezed, which pushed producers in the region to shut in wells. Less oil reaching the market means a higher price today. Oil is up about 49% from where it sat a year ago.

But the EIA is not forecasting the news. It is forecasting the barrels. And the barrel count keeps rising. U.S. production is forecast at 13.8 million barrels a day this year and 14.3 million next year.

So today's price is being held up by a disruption, not by a shortage of oil in the ground. Disruptions ease. Production does not un-happen.

Here is the part most people miss. A falling price forecast does not kill an oil investment. It changes which ones survive it. A deal underwritten assuming $90 oil gets hurt at $74. A deal underwritten at $65 does not.

So the question to ask a sponsor is never "what is oil doing." It is "what oil price did you assume, and what happens if you are wrong."

What oil price is your current energy investment underwritten at?

Source:

Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government