09/20/2025
**Journal Entry โ The Real Cost of โGuttingโ Solar PV in the U.S.**
Todayโs grid is being rebuilt in real time, and solar PV is carrying much of that load. In 2024 alone, U.S. solar installations climbed \~21% year over year to **\~50 GWdc**, accounting for **66% of all new power capacity added to the grid**. Utilityโscale solar set a record with **\~41.4 GWdc** commissioned. Those are not signals of a sector to tear down; theyโre the numbers of a core, costโeffective resource doing the heavy lifting. ([SEIA][1])
**What the latest facts say (U.S., through 2024/early 2025)**
* **Solar kept growing, not shrinking.** 2024 solar additions rose \~21% from 2023 to \~49.99 GWdc; solar made up twoโthirds of all new U.S. capacity that year. Utilityโscale alone hit a record \~41.4 GWdc. ([SEIA][1])
* **Clean power (solar, wind, storage) also surged.** 2024 saw **\~49 GW** of new clean power capacityโ**\~33% more** than 2023โand clean energy represented **\~93%** of all new capacity added. ([ACP][2])
* **Cost advantage remains decisive.** Lazardโs 2025 LCOE+ shows unsubsidized **utilityโscale solar around \~\$38โ\$78/MWh**, generally under new gas builds at **\~\$48โ\$107/MWh**; with incentives, solar is even more competitive. ([Reuters][3])
* **Reliability is being reinforced by storage.** Developers added **\~10.4 GW** of utilityโscale batteries in 2024โthe secondโlargest capacity addition after solarโtightening peaks and improving resource adequacy. ([U.S. Energy Information Administration][4])
* **Pipeline momentum continues.** EIA projects another **\~26 GW** of new solar in 2025 and **\~22 GW** in 2026 after a record **\~37 GW** utilityโscale solar added in 2024. ([Reuters][5])
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# # # The detriments of โguttingโ solar PV
1. **Higher power costs and more price volatility.**
Removing the fastestโtoโbuild, lowestโcost new generation forces greater reliance on fossil units with higher and fuelโexposed operating costs. Current cost curves show solar undercutting new gas on levelized cost; ripping out that supply raises longโrun delivered costs and tightens reserve margins. ([Reuters][3])
2. **Weakened grid resilience at the very moment peak demand is rising.**
Solar, increasingly paired with 4โhour batteries, has become a primary tool for shaving peaks and backstopping lateโday ramps. Halting deployments would slow the growth of coโlocated storage that is already expanding rapidly and supporting reliability in markets like CAISO and ERCOT. ([U.S. Energy Information Administration][4])
3. **Lost local revenue, jobs, and private investment.**
Utilityโscale wind and solar already deliver **billions annually** in landโlease payments and state/local taxes to rural counties, plus hundreds of thousands of direct jobs across the value chain. Policy whiplash that โgutsโ solar undermines those cash flows and payrollsโalong with the investment pipeline thatโs now measured in the hundreds of billions. ([ACP][6])
4. **Domestic manufacturing whiplash and stranded capital.**
Factory buildouts for modules, racking, inverters, and storage were planned around stable, multiโyear demand signals. Proposals to curtail credits or restrict inputs abruptly would jeopardize **hundreds of U.S. solar and storage factories** and **hundreds of billions** of expected investment, with attendant job losses. Thatโs capital flight and reputational risk for the U.S. as a manufacturing base. ([Reuters][7])
5. **Energy security and capacity adequacy risk.**
Interconnection delays and highโvoltage equipment bottlenecks are already stretching project timelines. Pulling demand signals for solar makes the backlog worse by discouraging shovelโready projects that can be built faster than conventional large thermal plants, just as load growth from data centers and electrification accelerates. ([Reuters][8])
6. **Environmental and publicโhealth externalities rise, not fall.**
Less solar means more fossil generation at the margin, which raises emissions and associated health costs. Clean power already avoids large volumes of COโ each year; gutting deployments erodes that progress and the health and compliance benefits that come with it. ([ACP][9])
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# # # Direct answer to your question
**โWas there a 30% decrease in solar and renewable projects compared to last year (U.S.)?โ**
**No. Quite the opposite.**
* **Solar:** 2024 installations **increased \~21%** versus 2023, to \~**49.99 GWdc**; solar contributed **66%** of all new U.S. capacity in 2024. ([SEIA][1])
* **Clean power overall (solar, wind, storage):** 2024 deployments **rose \~33%** versus 2023, to **\~49 GW**. ([ACP][2])
*Context for 2025 yearโtoโdate:* the market has cooled from 2024โs allโtime highsโSEIA reports **Q1 2025 solar down \~7% YoY** and **Q2 2025 down \~24% YoY**โbut that is not a 30% fullโyear collapse, and the year isnโt over. ([SEIA][10])
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# # # Bottom line (no sugarโcoating)
From a cost, reliability, and investment standpoint, gutting solar PV now would mean paying more for less resilient power while forfeiting durable local revenues and manufacturing momentum. The data doesnโt support a โ30% declineโ narrative; it shows a system that leaned on solar in 2024 to meet demand at the lowest cost and is still adding large volumes of solar and storage going forward. ([SEIA][1])
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**Note on numbers:** SEIA/Wood Mackenzie report installations in **GWdc** across **all segments** (residential + commercial + utilityโscale). EIA and ACP often cite **utilityโscale** capacity (typically in **GWac**)โso youโll see different totals, but the direction of travel is the same. ([SEIA][1])
* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-solar-plants-power-majority-us-electricity-generation-growth-eia-says-2025-01-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewable-energy-remains-cheapest-power-builds-new-gas-plants-get-pricier-2025-06-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/project-delays-are-holding-back-clean-power-installation-report-says-2024-05-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/house-bill-would-choke-us-solar-investment-says-top-trade-group-2025-05-19/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
[1]:https://seia.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/SMI-2024-YIR-ES.pdf "USSMI-2024 YIR-Executive Summary"
[2]: https://cleanpower.org/resources/clean-power-annual-market-report-2024-snapshot/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Snapshot of Clean Power in 2024 | ACP Report"
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewable-energy-remains-cheapest-power-builds-new-gas-plants-get-pricier-2025-06-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Renewable energy remains cheapest power builds as new gas plants get pricier"
[4]: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64705&utm_source=chatgpt.com "U.S. battery capacity increased 66% in 2024"
[5]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-solar-plants-power-majority-us-electricity-generation-growth-eia-says-2025-01-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "New solar plants to power majority of US electricity generation growth, EIA says"
[6]: https://cleanpower.org/market-report-2024/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Clean Energy Powers America | ACP Annual Market Report 2024"
[7]: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/house-bill-would-choke-us-solar-investment-says-top-trade-group-2025-05-19/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "House bill would choke US solar investment, says top trade group"
[8]: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/project-delays-are-holding-back-clean-power-installation-report-says-2024-05-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Project delays are holding back clean power installation, report says"
[9]: https://cleanpower.org/facts/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Clean Power Facts and Statistics | ACP"
[10]: https://seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Solar Market Insight Report โ SEIA"
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) is leading the transformation to a clean energy economy. Learn more at seia.org
