03/23/2026
Market Movement: Carter Lovelace
Mortgage rates trended higher last week, continuing their March climb and reversing the relative easing seen earlier in the year. Housing data came in mixed this week, with builder sentiment improving modestly and pending home sales rebounding, while new home sales declined sharply. Mortgage application submissions fell notably following the prior week’s activity, and jobless claims remained relatively stable with initial claims easing and continuing claims edging higher. The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected, while building permits showed a modest pickup despite a monthly decline.
MORTGAGE RATES
CURRENTLY TRENDING
Source: Mortgage News Daily
THIS WEEK'S
PREDICTED VOLATILITY
Source: Mortgage News Daily
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The NAHB Housing Market Index inched up to 38 in March, slightly above expectations of 37 and up from 37 previously, signaling modest improvement in builder sentiment. Current single family sales and sales expectations for the next six months both rose, while traffic of prospective buyers declined.
The ADP weekly employment update showed private payrolls increased by 9,000, slowing from 15,500 in the prior week and indicating softer hiring momentum.
Pending home sales rose 1.8% month-over-month in February, rebounding from a 1.0% decline previously and exceeding expectations for a 0.6% decrease, while the Pending Home Sales Index increased to 72.1 from 70.8.
Mortgage application submissions declined 10.9% for the week ending 3/13. The Refinance Index decreased 19% from the previous week, while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1%.
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with market expectations.
Building permits came in at 1,386,000 in January, above expectations of 1,376,000 but below the prior 1,455,000, while permits fell 4.7% month-over-month following a 4.8% increase previously.
Continuing jobless claims increased to 1,857,000 for the week ending 3/7, slightly above expectations of 1,850,000 and up from 1,847,000 in the prior week. Initial jobless claims fell to 205,000 for the week ending 3/14, below expectations of 215,000 and down from 213,000 previously; the four-week average edged down to 210,750 from 211,500.
New home sales fell sharply to 587,000 in January, well below expectations of 722,000 and down from 712,000 previously, as sales dropped 17.6% month-over-month following a 6.8% decline.
