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FULL SERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BROKERS, INCLUDING PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. GOOD ENOUGH IS UNACCEPTABLE

Jim Carmichael is a seasoned commercial and investment real estate professional with a diverse background and an inspiring journey. A proud US Navy veteran, Jim served on the fast attack submarine USS Oklahoma City (SSN-723) before transitioning into a civilian career. Jim's journey into real estate began with mobile home sales, where he quickly rose through the ranks and achieved multiple sales awards. After the 9/11 attacks, he transitioned into commercial real estate, working with Marcus & Millichap, Sperry Van Ness & First Commercial Realty before joining Prudential Commercial Real Estate in 2013 which was bought by Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices. It was during this time that he found his true calling in commercial and investment real estate, as well as property management. Today, Jim leads a successful team of agents and has built a robust portfolio of investments, including a flooring company and other ventures. He is passionate about helping clients find the right opportunities and prides himself on providing exceptional service and expertise. Outside of his professional life, Jim enjoys traveling, fine dining, attending concerts, and riding motorcycles with his partner, Stephany Parker. He attributes his personal and professional growth to strong relationships, valuable mentorship from his broker David Mussari, and a deep sense of gratitude and faith. With an unwavering dedication to his clients and a keen eye for opportunities, Jim Carmichael is the go-to expert for all your commercial and investment real estate needs. Connect with Jim today to learn more about how he can help you achieve your real estate goals.

10/23/2026

It's hard to make decisions when the money supply is volatile.v Also, you think data centers don't matter as an asset class? Look at teh numbers!

From CRE Daily:

Rising Rates Threaten CBRE’s Deal Momentum as CRE Uncertainty Grows
Just as CRE transactions were gaining momentum, rising interest rates are threatening the recovery, with CBRE warning that dealmaking challenges could extend into 2027.

Deal delays mount: Higher borrowing costs and rising cap rates are forcing deals to be repriced, canceled, or converted into refinancing transactions. CBRE CEO Bob Sulentic says rate volatility and uncertainty are keeping investors sidelined, potentially until the second half of 2027.

By the numbers: Despite growing headwinds, CBRE posted a strong third quarter:

Revenue: Rose 13% to $11.5 billion.

Net income: Jumped 22% to $443 million.

Property sales: Increased 28% globally and 37% in the U.S.

Industrial leasing: Climbed 16%, setting a Q3 record.

Data center revenue: Surged 80%.

A tale of two markets: While traditional CRE deals face pressure, data center infrastructure is booming. Following its $1.2 billion Pearce Services acquisition and latest purchase of Onnec Group, CBRE expects critical infrastructure revenue to reach nearly $4.5 billion by 2027.

Corporate spending shifts: Major tech companies are redirecting investment from traditional real estate toward data centers and infrastructure. Combined with economic uncertainty, this shift is slowing corporate property spending while fueling demand for digital infrastructure.

The 2027 outlook: CBRE maintained its 2026 earnings guidance of $7.80–$7.90 per share and projects 15% earnings growth in 2027. Infrastructure expansion should help offset weaker capital markets activity.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Recovery on hold: CRE's transaction rebound faces another hurdle as rate uncertainty delays deals into 2027. Until borrowing costs stabilize, investment activity could remain sluggish. Meanwhile, CBRE's infrastructure expansion highlights a broader capital shift toward data centers and the growing AI economy.

10/21/2026

From CRE Daily:

Blackstone’s $1.3B Apartment Loan Hits Special Servicing as Multifamily Distress Spreads

Even the biggest players aren't immune to multifamily distress, as Blackstone's $1.3B apartment loan heads to special servicing amid mounting pressure across Sun Belt markets.

Loan trouble: Blackstone's $1.3B CMBS loan entered special servicing after maturing in October, according to Morningstar Credit. The loan had been on a watchlist since December 2024 due to deferred maintenance concerns and its approaching maturity.

By the numbers: Originally backed by 21 properties totaling 6,671 units, the portfolio has shrunk considerably as Blackstone has sold assets since 2023.

Just six properties totaling 1,842 units remain, with an outstanding loan balance of $517.7M.

Blackstone secured a three-month forbearance agreement to sell the remaining assets, located in Washington, Texas, Georgia, and Florida.

Units backing Blackstone's CMBS loan
Originally 6671 units
Now 1842 units
Data sourced from The Real Deal.

Mixed fortunes: Blackstone's recent multifamily performance paints a complicated picture. The firm lost control of Dallas' 490-unit 75 West Apartments following a default on a $90M loan, yet successfully refinanced another 6,041-unit portfolio with a $1B CMBS loan in August.

Bigger picture: Multifamily distress continues to ripple through the Sun Belt as higher borrowing costs collide with debt originated during the early-2020s buying boom. In Texas alone, troubled commercial real estate loans flagged for foreclosure exceeded $1B in October, marking the fourth time this year the state crossed that threshold.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Size doesn't guarantee safety: Blackstone's troubles underscore how rising interest rates and maturing debt are testing even the most well-capitalized investors. With more loans approaching maturity, the divide between properties that can refinance and those forced to sell could create fresh acquisition opportunities for investors with capital ready to deploy.

10/20/2026

From CRE Daily:

Building Costs Settle Into a Pricier New Normal

Predictable, cheap construction is gone for good, JLL says, and a 3% to 6% annual cost climb is now the baseline developers must plan around.

By the numbers: The forecast is blunt. JLL's 2026 Global Construction Costs Index projects worldwide costs rising 3.1% to 4.2% in 2027, after a 3.5% to 4.7% climb this year, and the firm now treats a 3% to 6% annual increase as the baseline to plan around, against a 2% to 3% norm before 2020.

Five years of inflation: Costs have already run 25% to 30% higher worldwide over the past five years, and up to 40% in some markets. The swings are not done. JLL expects material prices to move 20% to 40% in either direction over the next three to five years.

Labor sets the pace: Payroll is the clearest pressure. Pay for construction workers is up 8% to 35% since 2020, and 1% to 6% a year more recently, while 64% of the markets in JLL's survey report skilled-labor shortages against 48% for unskilled.

The regional split: Geography decides the number. North American costs are forecast to climb 3.2% to 4.2% in 2027, driven by materials, US trade policy and labor, while Asia Pacific leads at 3.8% to 4.7%, the Middle East runs 3.4% to 5.4% and Europe trails at 2.2% to 3.5%.

Trades in demand: Electricians are the bottleneck. Data centers and advanced manufacturing keep bidding for the same mechanical and electrical workers, so JLL expects wage premiums to stick, with electrician and carpenter shortages each reaching 64% of markets and plumbers and HVAC technicians close behind at 58%.

Not all space is equal: Build costs split by use. Shell-and-core offices now run $2,600 to $3,410 per square meter and high-rise residential $2,280 to $3,710, while industrial and logistics stay far cheaper at $980 to $1,520, and rising values let industrial and data-center projects absorb the escalation best.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's next: Volatility is the operating condition now, not a phase to wait out. Lock pricing early. JLL tells owners to fix prices on structure and MEP work, re-test pre-2024 pro formas against today's benchmarks, and pull priority projects forward before 2027's increases bite.

10/19/2026

From CRE Daily:

September's Hike Blows a $6.8B Hole in Apartment Debt
One quarter-point move in September pushed a wave of maturing apartment loans past the point where they can refinance on their own, according to CRED iQ.

By the numbers: CRED iQ re-sized $136B of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and CMBS apartment debt maturing from October 2026 through December 2028. Loans holding 31% of that balance now come up short, needing $6.8B of fresh capital. That is nearly one maturing loan in four.

The trigger: SOFR jumped from 3.62% to 3.85% on September 17, and that single step dropped 178 more loans below a 1.25x coverage threshold, carrying $4.0B in balance and widening the funding hole by $846M.

A vintage split: The pain clusters in one era. Loans written in 2021 and 2022 carry a median 3.35% coupon and now face rates two to three points higher, so 46% of them need fresh equity. Only 15% of 2016-to-2018 loans do.

Where it bites: Geography sorts the winners from the exposed. San Francisco leads with 70% of maturing balance falling short, trailed by Atlanta at 55% and Denver at 51%, while Chicago sits at 13% and holds onto cheaper vintage debt and steadier income.

A case in point: Near Wall Street, the 767-unit 20 Exchange Place runs 94% occupied yet shows the squeeze. Its $246M Freddie Mac loan at a 4.01% coupon matures in February 2027, but 2025 income supports only about $183M in new debt, leaving a $63M gap to fill.

The income divide: Operations decide which side a loan lands on. Among loans that still pencil, median NOI has climbed 31% since underwriting, while among those that fail it has fallen 12%, and each additional quarter-point hike adds roughly $1.0B to the shortfall.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's next: Debt capital is still plentiful, so most maturing loans will refinance without drama. The pressure lands on 2021 and 2022 borrowers hitting 2027 deadlines. Their choice narrows to a fresh equity check, a paydown or a negotiated extension.

10/16/2026

Would you bet on or against technology?

From CRE Daily:

Blackstone Turns Computing Into an Asset Class

Blackstone has built a decade of data center bets into a $200B empire, and President Jon Gray now calls AI the firm's most important undertaking.

By the numbers: Blackstone's data center investments, counting debt and projects under construction, reached $200B in July, up from $55B in June 2024. For scale, its entire real estate book was last valued at $608B, making compute a fast-rising slice of the portfolio.

An accelerating bet: The firm leaned in with a roughly $10B purchase of QTS in 2021. The land QTS held was expected to last a decade, yet it was used up about 18 months after closing once ChatGPT set off a demand surge.

Beyond the buildings: The bet no longer stops at buildings. It now runs from server halls into chip financing, power generation and stakes in AI labs, and a 2023 loan to CoreWeave, backed by a Microsoft contract, helped create the entire market for chip-backed lending.

Powering the load: The electricity math is daunting. To feed the demand, Blackstone is buying into wind, solar, batteries and gas plants, infrastructure chief Sean Klimczak said, as BloombergNEF estimates these facilities will draw about 20% of US electricity by 2035, up from 5.9% today.

Spreading the chips: The firm has taken positions in Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI through its BXPE vehicle, partnered with Google on a cloud venture, and joined five other financial giants pledging $500B to fund Nvidia customers.

The bear case: Not everyone is convinced. Jeffrey Hooke of Johns Hopkins told Bloomberg the reliance on hyperscaler contracts is unproven, warning that tenants could decline to renew if demand softens and that packing these assets into retail funds could backfire.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's at stake: Blackstone is wagering that computing capacity becomes an asset class as durable as warehouses or apartments. If the buildout holds, the payoff reshapes where real estate capital flows; if it stalls, that same concentration cuts the other way.

10/15/2026

It's like they read my post...

From CRE Daily:

Electricity Now Decides Where Big Projects Land
Electricity has overtaken land, labor and incentives as the single biggest factor deciding where America's most capital-intensive projects get built, from data centers to advanced manufacturing, according to a new site-selectors survey.

By the numbers: Among the 72 members of the 2026 Site Selectors Guild, 79% ranked power access a top influence this year, Bisnow reported, with labor and geopolitics each at 50%. More than half said inadequate supply alone is now enough to strike a location off the list.

A fast reversal: The shift has been abrupt. Tariff policy topped the guild's 2025 list at 87% and utility capacity drew 66%, while workforce availability ranked first as recently as 2024 at 76%, showing how quickly the grid jumped the queue.

Demand outruns supply: Goldman Sachs Research projects US electricity demand for these projects climbing from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW by 2027, a jump of more than 100% led by data centers. Utilities cannot keep pace, and equipment lead times have become the gating factor.

US power demand for capital-intensive projects
2025 31 GW
2027 66 GW
Source: Goldman Sachs Research

A plant on hold: The stakes are concrete. USA Rare Earth approached Cherokee County, S.C. in February about a $1B facility with roughly 500 jobs that needed 70 MW within two years, yet the site had capacity for just 1 MW until a state senator pushed Duke Energy to commit.

Local pushback: Opposition is now a screening factor too. Some 22% of consultants cited community resistance as grounds to drop a site, and Data Center Watch counted at least 45 projects worth about $68B blocked or delayed between April and June, after 75 worth $130B in the first quarter.

Who wins ground: Sites with secured power increasingly win on both price and speed. Developers and brokers who document available capacity before going to market hold the edge, and groups like Greater New Orleans Inc. are gathering that data early with state-backed certification funding.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's next: Expect more local governments to press utilities for faster interconnection and more scrutiny of where campuses land. For owners and developers, lining up power before entitlements is becoming the clearest path to winning the next capital-intensive deal.

10/14/2026

From CRE Daily:

The Sun Belt Works Off Its Glut at Three Speeds

The Sun Belt multifamily market is slowly recovering from its post-pandemic supply glut, but slowing migration and uneven demand are keeping some markets behind.

The big picture: The pandemic boom added 673,000 apartments and pushed rents up 30% between 2021 and 2024. Now, Yardi expects major oversupplied markets to return to positive rent growth by the end of 2027.

By the numbers: Sun Belt construction starts have plunged 75% from their 2022 peak. National apartment deliveries are projected to fall from 696,000 units in 2024 to 421,000 in 2026, with another 24% decline expected in 2027.

Multifamily completions in Sun Belt cities for 2024 and 2025, with estimates for 2026 and 2027. | Source: Commercial Observer

Migration slows: Florida's net domestic migration has fallen 80% from its 2022 peak, while Texas saw a 44% annual decline in 2024. Rising housing costs, insurance premiums, and reduced immigration are weighing on renter demand.

Leaders and laggards: Austin and San Antonio are leading the recovery as absorption outpaces completions. Phoenix absorbed 17,000 units in the first half of 2026, while Dallas-Fort Worth still faces a pipeline exceeding 40,000 apartments.

The supply squeeze: With construction slowing sharply, markets like Phoenix, Charlotte, Fort Worth, and Austin could face their tightest apartment conditions in years by 2028, potentially supporting stronger rent growth.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Timing is everything: The Sun Belt's construction slowdown could create attractive investment opportunities as excess inventory clears. Markets with strong absorption and shrinking pipelines are positioned to rebound first, making local supply-and-demand fundamentals more important than ever.

10/12/2026

From CRE Daily:
REITs Shrug Off a 5% Treasury as Fundamentals Take Over

REITs spent three years treated as a pure low-rate trade. This year the fundamentals are winning anyway, even with the 10-year lodged above 5%.

By the numbers: Total returns on the FTSE Nareit All REIT Index are up more than 6% YTD. Capital markets never closed. The sector raised $19.8B in Q3, matching Q2 and lifting the 2026 haul to $65.7B, nearly even with the $65.9B raised through the same point in 2025.

Yields lose their grip: Cohen & Steers found the correlation between REIT returns and 10-year yields has flipped repeatedly over time, so direction alone no longer predicts performance. Hoya Capital pegs the REIT-to-rate relationship at its weakest in about four years, and 58 of the 98 REITs that issued full-year guidance have raised it.

Profits carry the load: Cohen & Steers’ Seth Laughlin notes the 10-year is up roughly 100 bps in a year, forcing every asset class to compete with richer yields. Yet REIT earnings growth has accelerated to about 9% this year and should run near 8% in 2027. “Under the hood, the economy is really healthy, and I think about REITs as sort of the landlord to the broader economy,” he told CNBC.

Discipline tightens supply: Excluding data centers, REIT development pipelines sit about 40% below both their 2022 peak and their 2019 level, choking off the future competition that would otherwise pressure rents and occupancy across most property types. Data centers are the exception. Their pipelines run roughly seven times their 2019 size.

Capital turns choosy: Debt made up 50% of what REITs raised through Q3, down from 59% a year earlier, as the weighted-average coupon on new REIT debt climbed to 5.4% from 4.7% in the Q1. Buyers kept writing checks anyway, led in Q2 by health care ($9.5B), retail ($4.7B) and data centers ($4.3B).

Winners and laggards split: The spread is wide. Hotel, data-center and senior-housing names lead with double-digit returns, and even office and regional-mall REITs are positive. Apartment REITs remain in the red, still grinding through oversupply and soft rents.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
The real divide: The rate shock that was supposed to break REITs mostly didn't, and the gap now runs along fundamentals rather than the yield curve. Sectors with genuine earnings growth and disciplined pipelines are absorbing pricier debt, while oversupplied corners keep paying for it. For investors, the signal is to underwrite cash-flow durability, not a rate cut that may never arrive.

10/09/2026

Last month, a seller told me a deal was priced at $2 million.

After a few conversations, it became clear: what they actually needed was about $500,000 in cash to retire a partner, settle a small lien, and walk away clean.

The listed price wasn’t off. The gap just wasn’t a pricing gap. It was a structure gap.

That kind of gap comes up more often than anyone admits out loud. And it isn’t usually fixed by a smaller number, a cheaper rate, or a more patient buyer. It’s fixed by someone who can:

• Read what the seller really needs beneath the asking price
• Read the cash flow and timing underneath the numbers
• Build a structure both sides can actually sign

That’s the work Cairnscript was built to do.

We sit alongside investors, brokers, and owners on the commercial deals the standard forms don’t quite cover split sales, seller financing, partial-interest assumptions, equity-for-control trades, and the quieter negotiations around them.

No pitch deck. No pressure. Just experienced judgment applied to the deal you actually have.

If you’ve got a deal on your desk that won’t fit a standard form, the guide below walks through a few of the shapes it might take.

→ Grab “17 Ways to Structure a Real Estate Deal When Cash and Conventional Financing Aren’t Enough” https://tinyurl.com/3uzwp5p7
(If the guide isn’t live yet, that link routes to the Cairnscript waitlist.)

10/07/2026

From CRE Daily:

Rising Rates Put CRE Deals Back on the Negotiating Table
CRE’s recovery is running into a familiar obstacle: sharply higher borrowing costs are forcing buyers to renegotiate deals and owners to brace for more refinancing pressure.

Deals are getting retraded: Buyers who agreed to acquisitions when financing was cheaper are increasingly demanding price cuts or better terms before closing. The trend accelerated as bond yields climbed and the Fed raised its benchmark rate, making CRE’s lengthy closing periods increasingly costly.

By the numbers: Eastham Capital negotiated a $600,000 discount on a roughly $20M, 200-unit Midwest apartment deal after borrowing costs jumped more than 60 bps. Medalist Diversified also trimmed $100,000 from a $10.2M retail sale after its buyer sought relief.

The recovery hits turbulence: CRE had begun recovering as development slowed, office attendance improved and borrowing costs stabilized. Higher rates are now pressuring valuations and making projects harder to pencil. Since late August, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index fell more than 8% through Oct. 2, while the S&P 500 gained 1%.

Refinancing risk is building: More than $5T in commercial and multifamily mortgages remains outstanding, leaving borrowers exposed as lower-rate loans mature. In August, 11.42% of CMBS loans were in special servicing, according to Trepp, the highest level since February 2013.

Capital hasn’t disappeared: There’s still plenty of money chasing strong deals. Northwind Group recently provided a $208M mortgage for a Brooklyn office-to-apartment conversion, drawing heavy competition from banks and private lenders. Capital remains available, but it’s getting more selective and expensive.

More friction, fewer freebies: Even strong properties aren’t immune. A bank pulled out of a $45M construction loan for a more than 90%-leased North Carolina retail center, forcing Marcus & Millichap to find a replacement lender.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The rate reset is becoming a price reset: CRE still has liquidity, but higher debt costs are widening the gap between buyers and sellers. If rates stay elevated, today’s retrades could become a broader repricing, giving well-capitalized investors more leverage as refinancing deadlines approach.

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Florence, KY
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