01/10/2026
Peninsula Market Considerations for 2026
ONE MINUTE in REAL ESTATE
Must Know Info for Owners and Aspiring Owners
San Mateo County Outlook, 2026
We recently presented the California Association of Realtors 2026 Housing Forecast, so here is a more specific analysis of the Peninsula.
San Mateo County is expected to deliver a steady, modest appreciation (3-5%) in home prices in 2026, driven by tech employment, low inventory (~2 month’s supply), and the currently lowest interest rates (6.15%) in over a year. Local unemployment has hovered around 4.1%, well below California’s statewide rate and indicative of a stable labor market.
Median household income remains exceptionally high—approximately $156,000, among the highest in the nation—providing a durable base of purchasing power required for the median home price of nearly $2M. While traditional tech and biotech sectors have experienced layoffs and hiring slowdowns (e.g., Gilead, Roche and others), job losses have been selective rather than systemic, and gains in Artificial Intelligence, healthcare, life sciences, hospitality, and professional services have helped offset volatility, perpetually delivering qualified buyers.
Federal, state and local housing policies impact any local forecast. The Fed has yet to indicate lower rates, having just cut them for the third time in late 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause or slower pace for future cuts. Rezoning initiatives, by-right development rules, CEQA streamlining, and new transit-oriented density laws taking effect in 2026 are designed to increase housing supply over time. However, the “lock-in” effect favoring owners with 2-3% mortgages, as well as government policies including restrictions on property tax transfer and the antiquated $250,000 capital gain exclusion, will continue to encourage owners to remain in place.
If you're wondering if this is the year to buy, remember the axiom “The best time to buy real estate is whenever you can."
This perspective is that of Peter Gum, not necessarily KW. Data derives from online sources and is offered for discussion, not as financial advice.
December Market Update
San Mateo County saw the Median Sold Price of a single family home drop from $1,925,000 to $1,850,000 between November and December, up from $1,710,000 in December of 2024. Between November and December, Average Days to Sell increased from 29 to 33 (34 last December), Sales Price to List Price ratio slid from 105% to 103% (104% last December), Months of Inventory dropped from 1.3 to 1.0 (1.1 last December), and Active Number of Homes fell from 424 to 272 (262 last December) having reached a peak of 686 in May.
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending January 1st, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.15%. Rates have undulated downward from a high of 7.04 on January 16, 2025.
About Peter Gum
Peter lives in Burlingame with his wife Judy. Children Nathan and Megan attend college in Santa Barbara. He has been active in the community receiving the PTA Honorary Service Award for fundraising and volunteerism in support of Burlingame schools, Boy Scouts, church, and youth sports. He served as Chair of the Planning Commission, Sub-Chair of the County Charter Review Committee and CMO of the United Flying Club. He also received the inaugural "Gumbo Award" for outstanding service to McKinley Elementary School and the City Beautification Award for the landscaping and hardscaping he created for his first house in Redwood City.
As a landlord, property investor, and Realtor, Peter offers a unique background enabling broad consultation on remodeling, local development, landlord/tenant relations, and referrals for contractors, architects, financial/tax/legal advisors, and home service vendors. Call anytime.
Peter Gum
REALTOR©
DRE # 01928396
650-627-3791
[email protected]
petergum.kw.com