08/02/2026
A new Michigan Senate poll shows Abdul El-Sayed opening a 15-point lead over Haley Stevens just days before the August 4 Democratic primary.
The Emerson College Polling survey, released July 30, found El-Sayed leading Stevens 54% to 39% among likely Democratic primary voters. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, the margin widened to 57% to 41%.
The numbers also reveal a deeply divided electorate. El-Sayed holds a 42-point advantage among voters younger than 50, while Stevens leads by 14 points among voters older than 60. Stevens has roughly a 2-to-1 advantage among Black voters, while El-Sayed holds a similar edge among white primary voters.
The contest to replace retiring U.S. Senator Gary Peters has become a major fight over the direction of Michigan’s Democratic Party.
El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, is running as the progressive candidate and has support from Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. His campaign has emphasized expanded government healthcare, reducing corporate influence in elections, and lowering grocery tariffs.
Stevens, a congresswoman from the Detroit suburbs, has positioned herself as the more moderate candidate. She is backed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Peters, with supporters arguing she would be stronger in a general election against likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers.
Tensions sharpened during the July 27 FOX 2 Detroit debate. El-Sayed attacked Stevens over outside campaign spending, including support connected to AIPAC. Stevens accused El-Sayed of chasing political attention instead of focusing on practical concerns facing Michigan families.
Polls are snapshots, not election results, but this one suggests the race has shifted sharply in El-Sayed’s direction at the moment Michigan voters are making their final choice.
