29/06/2026
How can Thailand preserve strategic agency in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape?
In a recent episode of The Nation’s The Next Move (25 June), which also featured EU Ambassador to Thailand Luisa Ragher, CPG Director Henning Glaser discussed how, in his view, the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States — against the immediate backdrop of the Geneva MoU then under discussion — could affect Thailand.
A key issue he identified was whether the apparent de-escalation would amount to more than a temporary calming of the confrontation. While the conflict may, for the moment, appear to have moved into calmer diplomatic waters, he cautioned that it remains uncertain whether this will lead to a durable settlement.
Henning Glaser also placed the war in a wider regional context. He described the Middle East as politically fluid across several theatres and fault lines and warned that this could create conditions in which new conflicts may emerge, existing conflicts may intensify, and instability may continue to affect energy markets, logistics, supply chains, and business planning.
With regard to Thailand, he stressed that these external pressures would meet an economy already marked by structural vulnerability. The challenge, in his assessment, is therefore not only the crisis itself, but the way in which its consequences may interact with deeply ingrained weaknesses of the Thai economy. Moreover, even if tensions between Washington and Tehran were to ease, he suggested, the effects of the conflict may continue to be felt for at least the rest of the year, with possible ripple effects across the wider economy.
Against this background, Henning Glaser described energy security as a central strategic concern for Thailand. He cautioned that this challenge could be aggravated by stronger competition for energy supplies in a tighter and less predictable global environment. Asked whether Thailand should diversify its energy sources, he noted that, under the present circumstances, this could indeed become a question of economic survival. In this context, he also pointed to the importance of strengthening renewable energy as part of a more resilient energy base.
Beyond the energy question, he emphasized that cosmetic policy adjustments would not be enough. In his view, Thailand would need deeper structural reforms to strengthen its economic foundations, improve governance capacity, and make the country more resilient to external shocks in a harsher international environment. He also noted that such reforms would be consistent with Thailand’s aspiration to move closer to OECD standards — not only to better withstand external pressures, but also to make fuller use of the country’s still remarkable economic and institutional potential.
Finally, Henning Glaser pointed to the need for stronger geopolitical awareness and strategic foresight. In a world in which geopolitical dynamics continue to shape the fortunes of Southeast Asian countries, he argued, Thailand’s strategic agency will depend not only on short-term flexibility, but also on the ability to anticipate systemic risks early and translate them into timely policy choices.
To access the full interview, please see the link in the first comment.
