Excelsior Consulting

31/12/2022

Arrendar casa: interesse aumenta, mas preços também (e falta oferta)

Property rental value figures as of December 2022.

The most recent data from Idealista shows that home rents rose by 20.2% between December 2022 and the same month last year. In the last month of this year, the average cost of renting a house was 12.9 euros per square meter (euro/m2).
As for the quarterly and annual variation, the growth was 7.9% and 16.3%, respectively.

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) also confirms this upward trend in amounts charged to landlords. In the third quarter of 2022, the median rent of new contracts reached 6.55 euros/m2, which is 7.6% higher than in the summer of 2021.

Rent could only rise 2% in 2023. If the inflation rate was multiplied, the increase in rent could be 5.43%. It was one of the measures announced by the government to combat rising inflation. At the same time, the executive branch announced that it was compensating landlords for tax benefits, and these compensations would cover about a million landlords and cost the state 45 million euros.

https://www.idealista.pt/news/imobiliario/habitacao/2022/12/30/55881-arrendar-casa-interesse-aumenta-mas-precos-tambem-e-falta-oferta

“Arrendar casa: a dinâmica de um mercado com falta de oferta”. Este foi o título do resumo anual que escrevemos no final ano passado, em jeito de balanço do segmento do arrendamento em Portugal em 2021. Título esse que faria sentido, de certa forma, usar também neste artigo, relativo ao com...

31/12/2022

Inflação abranda, pico pode não ter passado, mas Medina diz que economia tem derrotado “todos os pessimismos”

Inflation is slowing down and may not have peaked yet, but Medina says the economy has outperformed all pessimistic expectations.

The Portuguese economy will grow by 6.8% in 2022, says the Bank of Portugal and predicts Fernando Medina.

Inflation in Portugal slowed down in December, increasing from 9.9% to 9.6%, but the finance minister believes that it is not yet possible to say that the worst of the price increase is over.

"Portugal will finish 2022 with GDP growth of around 6.8%. "This growth is the country's biggest economic growth in 35 years," the finance minister said at a press conference with economy and labor ministers to sum up this year's results.

https://expresso.pt/economia/2022-12-30-Inflacao-abranda-pico-pode-nao-ter-passado-mas-Medina-diz-que-economia-tem-derrotado-todos-os-pessimismos-6883162e

Portugal crescerá 6,8% em 2022, diz o Banco de Portugal e assume Fernando Medina. “Economia portuguesa derrotou todos os pessimismos”, aponta o ministro das Finanças

30/12/2022

Happy New Year! Merry Christmas! Bom Ano Novo! 🎄🥂🍾

29/12/2022

Novas regras do SIFIDE abrangem investimentos já realizados

The new SIFIDE rules apply to investments already made.

The government bill has already been sent to Parliament and covers investments made before the date of entry into force of the law.

The changes to the law will require R&D investment funds to have "harder" rules in order to continue to enjoy the benefits provided under the Research and Business Development Tax Incentive (SIFIDE) scheme, as proposed by the ECO.

Under the government's proposed law, already submitted to Parliament, the new rules cover investments "up to the effective date," Business Journal said.

According to the current wording of the law, the terms "are calculated from the date of its entry into force." This could raise retrospective issues and jeopardize the tax planning strategies of those who invested before the end of the year in the expectation that they would not be subject to the new rules already announced by the government and could thus receive an IRC reduction.

The law, which has to pass through parliament as far as taxation is concerned, should come into force six months after its publication.

https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/12/28/novas-regras-do-sifide-abrangem-investimentos-ja-realizados/

A proposta de lei do Governo já foi enviada para o Parlamento e entra em vigor seis meses depois de publicada, ou seja, abrange os investimentos “anteriores à data da entrada em vigor”.

29/12/2022

Empresas criadas para obtenção de “vistos gold” liquidadas ao fim de poucos anos

Golden visa companies have been around for several years

According to the SEF, founders of companies liquidated less than five years after their incorporation have lost their residence permits.

In ten years, 22 golden visas granted to create a minimum of ten jobs, one of the conditions stipulated in the residence permit for investment (ARI) regime, have resulted in the creation of 280 jobs.

However, within a few years of their inception, these companies changed hands or even went into liquidation. The Service for Foreigners and Border Guards (SEF) reports that these owners have lost their visas, according to Público

https://www.publico.pt/2022/12/28/economia/noticia/empresas-criadas-obtencao-vistos-gold-liquidadas-fim-anos-2031917

Das 22 empresas criadas para obtenção de “vistos gold”, pelo menos quatro já foram liquidadas, das quais três não cumpriram o período mínimo exigido para a manutenção da autorização de residência.

29/12/2022

O que traz o novo ano de 2023? Uma forte desaceleração do crescimento na zona euro

What will the new year 2023 bring? A sharp slowdown in the euro area. Global Economic Forecasts IMF, ECB, European Commission, OECD

In global economic forecasts released in October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth at 2.7% in 2023, compared to a forecast of 3.2% for this year.

According to the IMF, the eurozone will grow by 0.5% in 2023, with France recording gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.7% and Spain 1.2%, while Germany and Italy, both expected to be hit by a recession by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

A slowdown in economic growth in the countries of the single currency is also predicted by the European Central Bank (ECB), which in December revised down its forecasts for next year to 0.5% compared with the forecast of 0.9% in September.

In the autumn macroeconomic forecasts, Brussels predicts GDP growth of just 0.3%, while in the summer it expected it to grow by 1.4% in the eurozone and 1.5% in the EU.

The EU executive estimates that Germany's GDP will contract by 0.6% in 2023, while France's GDP will grow by 0.4%.

Also, the OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts a slowdown in global economic growth from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023, according to the organization's latest forecasts published in November.

/o-que-traz-o-novo-ano-de-2023-uma-forte-desaceleracao-do-crescimento-na-zona-euro/

Previsões económicas mundiais do FMI, BCE, Comissão Europeia, OCDE

29/12/2022

Quer comprar casa? Avaliação bancária bate novo máximo com os valores mais elevados no Algarve

Bank valuation of housing increased to 1449 euros per square meter - November 2022

The average cost of a bank appraisal of a home in November was 1,449 euros, which is 29 euros more than in the previous month. On an annualized basis, the rate of change was 13.9% (13.5% in October).

The number of bank valuations reviewed declined for the sixth consecutive month to around 25,600, representing a 13.7% year-over-year decline and 22.9% less than in May last year, the month in which the maximum series.

The largest increase compared to the previous month was recorded in the Center (2.3%), while the only decrease was in the Autonomous Region of the Azores (-0.6%).

Compared to the same period of the previous year, the median value of estimates increased by 13.9%, with the most intense fluctuations observed in the Algarve (17.6%) and the lowest in the north (11.7%).

https://postal.pt/economia/avaliacao-bancaria-na-habitacao-bate-novo-maximo-com-variacao-mais-intensa-no-algarve/

Em comparação com novembro de 2021, o valor mediano das avaliações cresceu 13,9%, registando-se a variação mais intensa no Algarve (17,6%) e a menor no Norte (11,7%).

27/12/2022

Banco de Portugal avança com regras para o registo de entidades no negócio dos criptoativos

Banco de Portugal has initiated rules to register entities in the crypto business

New rules provided by Banco de Portugal for crypto-active service providers should help collect data against any anti-money laundering activity

A draft Banco de Portugal (BdP) instruction with rules that will regulate the registration process for businesses offering crypto-asset services in Portugal is under public consultation from Tuesday, 27 December, until 7 February.

According to the Portuguese central bank, companies planning to provide crypto-asset services must inform the BdP of "the name and address of the agent or distributor"; "a description of the internal controls to be used by the agent to compliance with legal or regulatory measures in place to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing".

According to the bank, the project includes "payment agents; operators of electronic payment system organizations" and "electronic payment system distributors".

https://expresso.pt/economia/2022-12-27-Banco-de-Portugal-avanca-com-regras-para-o-registo-de-entidades-no-negocio-dos-criptoativos-4c409218

As novas regras previstas pelo Banco de Portugal para os fornecedores de serviços em criptoativos deverão permitir a recolha de dados para o combate ao branqueamento de capitais

23/12/2022

Atividade económica e consumo privado voltam a abrandar em novembro

The Bank of Portugal (BdP) is reporting: Economic activity and private consumption again registered a slowdown in November.

The annual rate of change of the economic activity indicator was 5.2% in November (6.5% in November 2021), slowing down from 5.4% in September.
The year-on-year change in private consumption decreased from 2.5% in October to 2.1% in November. In November 2021 it was 7.5%.

In view of the trimester ended in November, the annual rate of change for economic activity and private consumption was 5.4% and 2.5% correspondingly, comparable with 5.6% and 3.0% for the trimester ended in October.

Since the start of the year, the monthly average rate of change in the economic activity index was 6.5% and the monthly private consumption index was 4.8%.
The BdP advises "in the current situation, due to unexpected and extensive volatility in the indicators used to calculate the indices, the monthly changes in these indicators are expected to be more than usual".

https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/atividade-economica-e-consumo-privado-voltam-a-abrandar-em-novembro

No mês de novembro, a taxa de variação homóloga do indicador para a atividade económica foi de 5,2% (6,5% em novembro de 2021), abrandando face aos 5,4% de setembro.

23/12/2022

Sem os imigrantes alguns setores da sociedade entrariam em colapso, revela relatório

The Migration Service's annual statistical report for 2022 states that immigrants have a key role for effective labor markets

The majority of foreign workers are related to accommodation, catering and administrative and support services activities.
A high proportion of foreign workers, compared to Portuguese workers, do not use their qualifications in the functions they do for the Portuguese labour market: for example, in 2020, 11.4% of foreigners with higher education (+7.7 percentage points compared to national workers) were included in the main professional groups, not using their qualifications in the activities they do

An "imbalance in average basic wages" also continues to exist. Overall, average salaries of foreign workers continued to be lower than those of Portuguese workers.

https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/imigrantes/sociedade/sem-os-imigrantes-alguns-setores-da-sociedade-entrariam-em-colapso-revela-relatorio/20221219/63a098a10cf255d6e14175e4

Relatório Estatístico Anual de 2022 do Observatório das Migrações indica que os imigrantes assumem um papel fundamental na eficiência dos mercados de trabalho

23/12/2022

Residentes no estrangeiro devem aderir à ViaCTT ou nomear representante

Residents who live abroad must link to ViaCTT or nominate a tax representative

The tax office is advising Portuguese taxpayers living outside the European Union, Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein, they must link to the electronic notification system (ViaCTT) or nominate a tax representative if they have a tax obligation in Portugal.

Linking the electronic notification system for persons who have a Portuguese NIF but is living outside the EU or the European Economic Area is available from 01 July via the Portal das Finanças, the regulations in force stipulate that such membership (to ViaCTT) allows these taxpayers not to have any tax representative.

According to the current rules, only residents in a third country who have legal tax obligations in Portugal and have decided not to use electronic notifications are required have a tax representative further. Such tax obligations are in place if the person owns a vehicle or real estate registered in Portugal, has an employment contract in Portugal or is self-employed in Portugal.

https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/economia/2138908/residentes-no-estrangeiro-devem-aderir-a-viactt-ou-nomear-representante

22/12/2022

Fundos Imobiliários gerem mais €55M em novembro

Real estate funds have got more than 55 million euros in November this year
In November, Square AM (12.5%), Interfundos (10.4%) and Caixa Gestão de Ativos (8.7%) held the largest market shares.

A monthly figure provided by the CMVM indicates, real estate investment funds (FII), special real estate investment funds (FEII) and real estate asset management funds (FUNGEPI ) managed in November 2022 reached 10,755.6 million euros, which is 55 million more (0.5%) than in October.

The amount invested in real estate investment funds decreased by 0.3%, respectively, to 8,043.5 million euros. In FEII, the amount increased by 3.5% to EUR 2,450.8 million, while in FUNGEPI it decreased by 0.2% to EUR 261.3 million.

https://vidaimobiliaria.com/noticias/investimento/fundos-imobiliarios-gerem-mais-eur55m-novembro/

Em novembro, a Square AM (12,5%), a Interfundos (10,4%), e a Caixa Gestão de Ativos (8,7%) detinham as maiores quotas de mercado.

22/12/2022

Contribuições de imigrantes para a Segurança Social batem recorde em 2021: foram mais de 1200 milhões de euros

Last year, the record for the number of foreign taxpayers in Portugal (475,892) was broken. And the amount of their contributions to Social Security was also the highest ever, reaching 1,293.2 million euros.

According to the “Immigrant Integration Indicators — Annual Statistical Report 2022” by the Migration Observatory, cited by Público, the number of immigrants who contributed to Social Security represented 10.1% of total contributors. That is, despite the increase in the cost of social benefits that benefited immigrants in 2020 and 2021, “very positive and unprecedented financial balances were achieved”. More than 802.3 million euros in 2020 and another 968 million euros in 2021, reveals the report.

“Globally, the foreign population residing in Portugal plays an important role in balancing the accounts of the Social Security system, contributing to a relative relief of the system and to its sustainability”, concludes the document.

https://www.publico.pt/2022/12/21/sociedade/noticia/contribuicoes-imigrantes-seguranca-social-batem-recorde-2021-1200-milhoes-euros-2032153

Os dados do relatório Indicadores de Integração de Imigrantes, elaborado pelo Observatório das Migrações, mostram que os imigrantes dão muito mais do que aquilo que recebem do Estado.

22/12/2022

Portuguese village one of the “Best Tourist Villages 2022”

Portuguese village is one of the "Best Tourist Villages 2022"

The historic village of Castelo Novo in the municipality of Fundão (Castelo Branco district) is the only Portuguese city to have received this year's World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) "Best Tourism Village 2022" award.

This award places Castelo Nova among the 32 villages from 18 countries that have been recognized in this edition of the UNWTO Best Tourist Villages and received locally with "great satisfaction" by Fundão Chamber President Paulo Fernandes.

"This is proof that Castelo Novo and the network of historic villages are in a very current phase of their tourism development, and on the other hand, it is also evidence that there has been an improvement in the architectural, natural and cultural heritage of Castelo Novo," he said.
Among the factors that influenced this choice, Paulo Fernandez also highlighted the importance of the electric vehicle mobility project that is being developed in this village and promotes environmental sustainability.
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-12-20/portuguese-village-one-of-the-best-tourist-villages-2022/73148

The historic village of Castelo Novo, in the municipality of Fundão (Castelo Branco district), is the only Portuguese town distinguished this year with the "Best Tourist Village 2022" award by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

22/12/2022

Alojamentos segundo os Censos: total e por forma de ocupação

Data released by Pordata based on the 2021 census shows that there are 348,097 vacant homes available for rent or sale in the country. Lisbon, Porto, Sintra Lole and Vila Nova de Gaia are the five Portuguese municipalities with the most available houses for rent or sale.

The available supply continues to fall short of demand.

Data released by Pordata based on the 2021 census shows that there are 348,097 vacant homes available for rent or sale in the country.

Pordata data indicates that the Lisbon metropolitan area has the majority of the supply - 70,048 houses available. The Oporto metropolitan area has more than 37,000. The Algarve, on the other hand, has 31,304 properties available.

According to Pordata, there are only 90 affordable houses in Murao. Laje das Flores is also at the bottom of the table with 84 properties. There are 78 houses in Mondim de Basto, 73 in Freixo de Espada à Cinta and 33 houses in Corvo available for sale or rent.

https://www.pordata.pt/municipios/alojamentos+segundo+os+censos+total+e+por+forma+de+ocupacao-1024-7430

Onde há mais e menos casas de habitação principal e secundária, ou vagas para alugar ou vender?

22/12/2022

Desemprego registado baixa 14,2% e alcança melhor novembro desde que há registo

The number of unemployed people registered at job centres dropped 14.2% in November in year-on-year terms, to 296,723, the best performance this month since records were began according to the IEFP.

According to the institute, “for the decrease in registered unemployment, compared to the same month of 2021, in the absolute variation, the groups of individuals who are aged 25 years or over (-44,018), those who looking for a new job (-45,681) and those applying for 12 months or more (-50,516)”.

According to data released by the Institute of Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP), in November there were 7,598 more unemployed people registered than in the previous month and 49,161 fewer than in November 2021.

Throughout the month of November, 54,348 unemployed people registered with employment services across the country, 7,206 (+15.3%) more than in the same month of 2021, and 3,768 (+7.4%) than in October.

t/noticias/economia/desemprego-registado-baixa-142-e-alcanca-melhor-novembro-desde-que-ha-registo_n1454973

O número de desempregados inscritos nos centros de emprego baixou 14,2% em novembro em termos homólogos, para 296.723, o melhor desempenho neste mês desde que há registo, informou hoje o IEFP, que registou um aumento de 2,6% em cadeia.

22/12/2022

Há uma estatística em que Portugal está acima da média europeia: a cripto

Portugal is above the EU average: cryptocurrency

European Central Bank data indicates 5% of Portugal's people hold crypto-assets, and this is more than the European average (4%). The biggest figures are registered in Slovenia and Luxembourg ( 8%).
The results are referring to a research of the types of payment by consumers in the eurozone, in which the ECB highlights that the countries with the highest percentage of use of cryptocurrencies, whether for investments or payments, are Italy (30%), Slovenia (28%), Greece, Belgium, Portugal, Austria, Cyprus (all with 26%) and Spain (25%).

Overall, the number of people who use cryptocurrencies for investment purposes was two to three times higher than the number who use cryptocurrency as a form of payment

In Portugal, the majority of transactions are still cash purchases (64%), more than even the Eurozone average (59%). The number of these transactions has decreased by 17 percentage points compared to the 2019 figures.
The majority of people asked during the research (60%) consider having cash as a form of payment important, and also highlight the importance of physical money as a way to be in control of their costs, a way to protect their own confidentiality, and to be able to settle transactions immediately.

https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/dinheiro-pessoal/criptomoedas/ha-uma-estatistica-em-que-portugal-esta-acima-da-media-europeia-a-cripto/20221221/63a1bd920cf27230dc1e9974

Banco Central Europeu (BCE) estima que a infiltração das criptomoedas no dia a dia da população europeia se deva aos efeitos provocados pela pandemia

22/12/2022

Alentejo, Açores e Lisboa com maior taxa de população inativa em 2021

According to the National Institute of Statistics, the highest rates of unemployed population in 2021 were registered in Alentejo and the autonomous regions of the Azores and Lisbon, with more than 110 unemployed people per 100 employed people.

"In Portugal, the population that was unemployed in 2021 was around 5.1 million, with 106.6 unemployed people per 100 employed," says the INE Regional Statistical Yearbook released (19.12.2022), which notes that this ratio "has decreased compared to 2020", when it was 112.2.

In the year under review, Alentejo (111.7), the Azores and Lisbon (111.5) and the Centre (107.9) were the regions where the ratio was higher than national.
Conversely, the Algarve (105.1), Madeira (104.9) and North (101.2) were below the national average.

As for the unemployment rate, which fell from 7.0% in 2020 to 6.6% in 2021, the Algarve (8.2%) and Madeira (7.9%) were the highest, while the Centre (5.8%) was the only region where the rate was below the national average.

https://sso.globalnoticias.pt/realms/GMG_PRD/protocol/openid-connect/auth?client_id=dinheirovivo&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dinheirovivo.pt%2Feconomia%2Fnacional%2Falentejo-acores-e-lisboa-com-maior-taxa-de-populacao-inativa-em-2021-15514344.html&state=79b64e0b-8339-4080-868d-8d7a1115ca59&response_mode=fragment&response_type=code&scope=openid&nonce=49a6e292-d009-4f7a-8a66-4ec8aa2e87a7&prompt=none

O Alentejo e as regiões autónomas dos Açores e Lisboa registaram as maiores taxas de população inativa em 2021, todos com mais de 110 pessoas inativas por 100 empregadas, segundo o Instituto Nacional de Estatística.

22/12/2022

Quality of life indicators. Eurostat has published the annual report showing which EU citizens are most satisfied with their quality of life.

Research conclusions.
Life satisfaction in the EU: an average of 7.2 (out of 10) in 2021, ranging from 5.7 in Bulgaria to 8.0 in Austria.

At EU level, average overall life satisfaction increased between 2013 and 2018, from 7.0 to 7.3
Between 2018 and 2021, life satisfaction in the EU decreased slightly, with the most notable decreases in countries with higher average values of life satisfaction such as Ireland (8.1 to 7.3), Denmark (7.8 to 7.3) and France (6.8 to 6.3).
During the same period, Portugal's figure has been rising at a stable trend: 6.2 in 2013, 6.7 in 2018 and 7.0 in 2021

EU citizens tend to be quite satisfied with their life in general, reporting an average of 7.2 points out of 10.0, and in all but one country, the average level was over 6 (i.e., satisfactory and above). There are, however, clear regional patterns: people in the northern, as well as western parts of the EU, tend to be more satisfied with their lives than people in the Baltic countries, the Mediterranean area and eastern parts of the EU. However, a convergence in life satisfaction can be noted in the period between 2018 and 2021. Slight increases of life satisfaction took place in countries with generally lower life satisfaction and the opposite in those countries with higher life satisfaction.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Quality_of_life_indicators_-_overall_experience_of_life

22/12/2022

Taxas Euribor voltam a subir para novos máximos desde janeiro de 2009

Euribor rates have risen again and reached a record high since January 2009.

Euribor rates for three, six and 12 months as well as two longer maturities reached new highs on Tuesday (20.12.2022) and rose for the third consecutive session.

The six-month Euribor rate, most used in Portugal for home loans and entering positive territory on June 6, rose to 2.625%, plus 0.040% of a point and a new high since January 2009.

The six-month average Euribor rose from 1.997% in October to 2.321% in November.

The six-month Euribor has been negative for six years and seven months (from November 6, 2015 to June 3, 2022).

https://sicnoticias.pt/economia/2022-12-20-Taxas-Euribor-voltam-a-subir-para-novos-maximos-desde-janeiro-de-2009-08ae1c79

As Euribor são fixadas pela média das taxas às quais um conjunto de 57 bancos da zona euro está disposto a emprestar dinheiro entre si no mercado interbancário.