Excelsior Consulting

11/06/2026

Portugal’s construction sector continues to grow — but new building permits are already slowing down.

At the beginning of 2026, construction activity in Portugal remained strong and even outpaced the broader economy. In Q1, GDP grew by 2.3%, while investment in construction increased by 2.6%, according to AICCOPN.

At first glance, the picture looks positive: construction is active, the sector remains resilient, and its contribution to the economy is growing. However, there is an important detail behind the headline figures: current activity is still strong, but the pipeline of new projects is beginning to weaken.

In Q1 2026, the number of building and demolition permits fell by 11.8% compared with the same period last year. The permitted area for residential projects decreased by 14.1%, while non-residential projects declined by 7%.

In simple terms: construction is still moving, but fewer new projects are entering the pipeline. This may affect the supply of real estate in the coming years.

At the same time, construction costs continue to rise. In March, the cost index for new housing construction increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and in April by 5.9%, according to INE.

Both labour and materials are becoming more expensive. In April, labour costs rose by 7.3%, while material costs increased by 4.7%. Among the most notable examples: diesel fuel rose by around 30%, while copper wire, tiles and mosaics increased by approximately 15%.

There are still signs of strong real activity. Cement consumption grew by 6.3% in the first four months of 2026, which is usually a good indicator that construction works are ongoing on the ground.

Lending to construction companies also increased. In April, loans to the sector rose by 12.1% year-on-year, exceeding €7.2 billion — the highest level since December 2020.

Public construction, however, shows a different trend. In April, the value of announced public tenders reached €2.385 billion, down 44% year-on-year. Signed contracts also declined, reaching €1.336 billion, a decrease of 25%.

The overall picture is mixed: the private sector continues to support construction activity, but permits are falling, costs are rising, and public projects are slowing down.

Portugal’s construction market still looks strong, but not as calm as the headline growth figures may suggest.

In short: construction in Portugal is currently growing faster than the economy, but the future volume of new developments may come under pressure. Fewer permits, higher material costs and rising labour expenses may continue to support high prices for new housing and intensify the shortage of supply.

Investimento no sector aumentou 2,6% no primeiro trimestre, enquanto crédito às empresas da construção atingiu o valor mais elevado desde 2020, revela a Aiccopn.

09/06/2026

🏦 Mortgage rates in Portugal have increased again

In April, the average interest rate on new mortgage loans in Portugal rose to 2.86%, the highest level since July 2025, according to Banco de Portugal.

At first glance, the increase may seem moderate — just +0.05 percentage points compared with March. However, the broader trend is more important: the average monthly mortgage payment has now been rising for eight consecutive months. In April, it reached €428, up €3 from the previous month.

Most new mortgages in Portugal are currently being issued with a mixed interest rate. These contracts accounted for 85% of new agreements. Under this structure, the loan starts with a fixed rate and later switches to a variable rate. The average rate for mixed-rate mortgages increased to 2.74%.

The rise was more noticeable for variable-rate mortgages, where the average rate reached 2.96%. In other words, the more “flexible” option is currently more expensive and more sensitive to market movements.

At the same time, Portugal still compares relatively well with the eurozone. The average rate on new mortgage loans in the euro area stands at 3.43%, while Portugal continues to have the fourth-lowest mortgage rate among eurozone countries.

So while borrowing has become more expensive, Portugal remains relatively accessible by European standards.

The increase in rates has not been limited to housing. Consumer credit rose to 8.98%, while the average interest rate on new corporate loans increased to 3.79%. At the same time, the volume of new lending declined both for individuals and for businesses.

In simple terms: money has become slightly more expensive again.

For real estate buyers, this means that it is not enough to look only at the property price. The real monthly mortgage payment matters just as much. Even a small difference in the interest rate can turn into a significant amount over the lifetime of a long-term mortgage.

🚨 In short: mortgage financing in Portugal remains cheaper than in many eurozone countries, but the period of easy credit no longer looks as calm. Buyers are likely to calculate their budgets more carefully, while overpriced properties may take longer to sell.

A taxa de juro média dos novos créditos à habitação subiu para 2,86% em abril, o valor mais alto desde julho de 2025, e a prestação mensal já sobe há oito meses consecutivos.

19/05/2026

Build-to-Rent in Portugal: why tax incentives are not enough

The Build-to-Rent model, where housing is developed specifically for long-term rental, is often presented as one of the key answers to Portugal’s housing crisis.

The state has made a strong move toward capital by introducing a powerful fiscal incentive package:

VAT on construction reduced to 6% instead of 23%.
IRS fixed at 10% for rental contracts of 3+ years.
Full exemption from AIMI, the additional property tax.

On paper, the financial model should work.

But institutional capital is still not rushing to launch large-scale BTR pipelines. Why?

Where the BTR model breaks

Tax incentives reduce CAPEX and OPEX pressure. But they do not solve three structural problems that can damage IRR before the project even starts.

Land basis
In Greater Lisbon and Porto, land is already highly priced. Buying plots at current values and then operating under limited rental levels makes net yield difficult to justify.

Time-to-market
Licensing delays can freeze capital for 2–4 years. In a high-rate environment, these “empty” years can absorb much of the tax benefit.

Construction costs
Traditional construction remains expensive, partly due to labour shortages and ex*****on risk.

How private investors can adapt
The opportunity is not necessarily in copying the institutional BTR model. It is in adjusting it to Portuguese realities.

Mid-scale BTR
Mega-projects of 500 units are likely to remain dependent on municipal concessions and long approval cycles. The more flexible segment is boutique BTR: 15–50 units, small plots or targeted redevelopment, with faster licensing and better operational control.

Geographic arbitrage
The BTR economy is under pressure in the centres of Lisbon and Porto. More interesting opportunities may be in well-connected satellite locations and logistics hubs: Campanhã, Almada, Loures, Braga. Land is cheaper, while demand for €1,000–1,500 monthly rentals remains strong.

Prefab and modular construction
Traditional methods expose BTR projects to material inflation and delays. Modular construction can shorten delivery times, accelerate cash flow and reduce interest-rate risk.

Summary
Tax incentives have made BTR legally attractive in Portugal. But the market has not yet solved the operational ex*****on problem.

The investors who learn to build faster, smaller and outside the most expensive city centres may capture the strongest opportunity in the next five years.

18/05/2026

Filipe Folque 43: boutique urban rehabilitation in Avenidas Novas with €10M investment

MELLO RDC is bringing a new residential project to central Lisbon: Filipe Folque 43, located on Rua Filipe Folque in Avenidas Novas.
This is not a large-scale new-build development, but an urban luxury format: only 6 apartments across 4 floors, with T2–T5 layouts, including duplex units. Completion is planned for summer 2028.

The project is built around a scarce product in Lisbon’s city centre: deep rehabilitation of a historic building combined with modern engineering, private parking and resident-only amenities.

Key facts:
Investment: €10M
Developer: MELLO RDC
Units: 6 apartments, from approx. 113 m² to 478 m²
Parking: private, with most larger units including 2 spaces
Shared areas: garden and residents’ pool
Energy efficiency: Class A, with VRV air conditioning and heat pumps

Current open listings already show offers from €1.99M for a T3 duplex and €3.99M for a T5 duplex. This corresponds to approximately €10,000–11,000/m², placing the project in the upper price segment of Avenidas Novas.

Location is one of the project’s strongest arguments. Saldanha, Marquês de Pombal, Parque Eduardo VII and El Corte Inglés are all within walking distance — a rare combination of business district, cultural infrastructure and a calm residential environment.

Investment view
The main value of Filipe Folque 43 is not speculative yield, but scarcity value.
In central Lisbon, there are very few new or high-quality rehabilitated properties with large areas, parking and a swimming pool.
At an entry price of around €11,000/m², this is not a classic rental-yield investment. Expected rental returns are likely to remain conservative.

This is more of a capital preservation product, suitable for families, senior executives and expats looking for a full-scale urban residence in Lisbon.
Important point: as this is a rehabilitation project in a historic central area, the property’s ARU status should be checked separately. Inclusion in an Área de Reabilitação Urbana may significantly affect the financial model through potential IMT and IMI tax benefits.

https://www.mellordc.pt/en/portfolio/real-estate/filipe-folque-41-45/130/

18/05/2026

From €300 and 200 unanswered emails to an international yacht agency
Today in Business Abroad: Ekaterina Suchinova, founder of yacht programs and sea events in Portugal.

Her story did not start with a polished business plan or investors. She moved to Portugal without speaking the language, without a job and with a baby in her arms. There was no start-up capital — so she started with what she knew best: sales.

Ekaterina built a database of travel agencies in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and sent more than 200 personal emails by hand. Around 90% went unanswered.
But one agency replied: Cheaptrip, the company through which she had first travelled to Portugal and met her future husband.
They agreed to test a 12-day tour. She rented a minivan, planned the route, booked the hotels, and her husband went as the guide.

The profit was about €300.

She decided to continue.

Before Portugal, Ekaterina had worked in marketing, sales, logistics, exhibitions, the car business and journalism for National Geographic. She had been to emerald mines in Latin America, worked in Abkhazia and managed extreme sports teams.

For years, she thought changing jobs every two years was a weakness. Later, she understood it was her strength: the ability to enter a new field, build a system, solve a task and move forward.

The business grew: regular groups, a company, the Azores, and then yachting — first as an extra option for adventurers, later as the core product.
March 2020 changed everything. A full year of bookings disappeared in just a few days.

Instead of waiting, Ekaterina rebuilt the model: European clients, yachting as the main product, Croatia, Greece and Italy.

The business did not just survive. It changed scale.
Today, she organizes corporate events for 50–100 guests on large yachts, with drones, live music and full-service programs. Her clients include embassies and American companies. Around 80% of bookings come through recommendations.

Her business rules are clear:
Reputation matters more than money.
Refusals are part of sales.
The local mentality must be respected.
And fear does not disappear — sometimes you simply close your eyes and take the next step.

https://www.instagram.com/undersailpt/
https://www.facebook.com/ekate.su/
https://www.facebook.com/undersailpt

14/05/2026

Portugal wants to simplify public procurement.

So much so that the Portuguese Court of Auditors, Tribunal de Contas, is already sounding the alarm.

The government led by Luís Montenegro wants to significantly reduce one of the main control mechanisms over public spending: the famous visto prévio.

In simple terms, this means that large public contracts used to require prior approval from the Court of Auditors before becoming effective.

Today, that control threshold is €750,000.

The new proposal would raise it to €10 million.

That means that around 90% of public contracts could move forward without prior external review.

And this is where the Portuguese drama begins.

Tribunal de Contas has already warned that the proposal may be “effectively unconstitutional”, creates “empty zones” in oversight, and opens more room for corruption.

Translated from formal legal language, this sounds very close to:

“We are removing security from the store and hoping all visitors behave responsibly.”

The most sensitive issue is European money.

PRR funds and EU financing usually like two things: control and paperwork.

Portugal is now proposing a different genre: spend first, audit later.

What makes the situation even more interesting is that the government does not present this as the final step.

It is only the first stage.

The long-term objective is the full elimination of visto prévio in the future.

The argument is attractive:

Portugal needs to accelerate investment and stop blocking the state with excessive bureaucracy.

And to be fair, the country really is tired of delays, approvals and endless administrative procedures.

But on the other side, Portugal also has a long history of scandals involving public money.

So weakening external control precisely at a time when billions of European funds are moving through the economy is not a small technical adjustment.

Investors are watching this closely.

Cheap money likes speed.

But it likes predictability and control even more.

And when a state starts saying, “let’s check public spending less,” the market usually starts checking the state more carefully.

12/05/2026

The ECB is preparing the market for a rate hike. And honestly, this may be the most predictable “surprise” of the year.

After keeping rates unchanged at 2%, several ECB voices are now signaling that a June increase is becoming “practically inevitable.”

The reason is simple: energy prices are rising again, the Middle East conflict is adding pressure, and eurozone inflation is back around 3%.

For Portugal, this matters more than it may seem.

A large share of Portuguese mortgages is linked to Euribor, which means the transmission is fast:

ECB rate hike → Euribor moves up → mortgage payments rise.

So while the property market is still showing strong price growth, financing may become more expensive again.

That creates a rather uncomfortable mix:
housing prices up,
credit costs up,
rents up,

and buyers still trying to enter the market before conditions tighten further.

The ECB has not moved yet.

But the market has already taken out the calculator.

O Banco Central Europeu (BCE) começou a preparar terreno para uma subida das taxas de juro. Depois de manter o preço do dinheiro nos 2% na reunião de 30 de abril, várias vozes dentro da instituição – o chamado “guardião do euro” – já avisam os mercados de que há uma forte probabilid...

11/05/2026

🇵🇹 Margem Sul: the “affordable alternative to Lisbon” is officially over

While Lisboa, Cascais and Oeiras continue to operate in the familiar “expensive, but expected” category, the real price acceleration is now happening elsewhere — on the southern bank of the Tejo.

According to data for Q1 2026, housing prices increased by:
Moita: +35.6%
Barreiro: +31%
Seixal: +31%

This is no longer a local anomaly. It reflects a broader shift within the Área Metropolitana de Lisboa.

The reason is simple — and very Portuguese: buyers were looking for places where housing still felt relatively attainable. The market quickly responded by making those places significantly less affordable.

What is especially notable is the speed of this change. Just a couple of years ago, Moita was trading at around €1,700/m². Today, it is already close to €2,400/m².

Meanwhile, Barreiro and Seixal have crossed the psychological threshold of €3,000/m² for the first time.

Lisbon remains significantly more expensive, of course. But this price gap is exactly what continues to push demand across the bridge.

For years, Margem Sul was marketed as:
“still affordable”
“still an opportunity”
“an alternative to Lisbon”

But when prices are rising by 20–35% per year, the word “affordable” starts to sound increasingly historical.

In essence, Lisboa is gradually becoming a market of scarcity and capital preservation. New demand — families, young buyers and mid-segment investors — is being pushed toward the southern bank.

What once looked like a compromise across the Ponte 25 de Abril is now becoming a new pricing reality within the Lisbon metropolitan area.

In other words, Portugal has once again addressed the housing affordability problem in its own way: by making everything more expensive.

Os concelhos da Margem Sul do Tejo estão a afirmar-se como os principais motores da valorização imobiliária na Área Metropolitana de Lisboa, com aumentos homólogos superiores a 30%.

11/05/2026

🎓 Portugal through education, profession and career capital

There are professions you cannot simply “move into” by transferring your previous experience. Law is one of them.

Even if a person already has legal experience abroad, in Portugal it is not enough to translate a diploma into Portuguese and add an apostille. The path requires entering the system again: through a university, the Ordem dos Advogados, a supervising lawyer and the local professional environment.

⚖️ Where the path begins

The first step is the recognition of a foreign degree through DGES and a Portuguese university.

For lawyers, this stage is especially important. It is not only about confirming the academic level of the degree, but also about doing it in a format that can later be accepted by the professional system.

After that, the candidate may apply to the Ordem dos Advogados as an advogado estagiário.

🏛 The internship has changed

Older materials often mention internships lasting 18 months, 2 years or even longer.

For new internships starting after 1 April 2024, the current regime is different: 12 months.

This is one year inside the profession: professional ethics, court practice, procedural documents, reports and evaluation.

The system checks not only legal knowledge, but also the ability to think and act as a Portuguese lawyer.

💶 The financial side

This path also requires financial planning.

Degree recognition, translations, apostilles, fees, insurance, legal Portuguese and later CPAS — all of this adds up.

At the same time, estágio should no longer be seen as an unpaid obligation. If the trainee is actually working, remuneration must be at least the minimum wage + 25%.

In 2026, this is approximately €1,150 per month.

📚 What can strengthen the profile

Preparation courses for the Ordem can be useful, especially in areas such as Deontologia, Processo Civil and Processo Penal.

Among the notable options are programmes linked to FDUL / IDPCC, as well as online platforms such as IusFool and Lexstream Academy.

But if we look at the broader career picture, a master’s degree may bring not direct access to the profession, but additional weight in the market.

NOVA Law — Master in Law and Management may suit those who want to connect law with business, transactions, taxation, ESG and corporate governance.

NOVA Law — Master in Law Applied to Technology is relevant for those looking toward AI, data protection, digital markets and regulation.

FDUL — Mestrado em Direito e Ciência Jurídica is a more classical academic route, with a strong name within the Portuguese legal environment.

🚨 Where the real niche is

For a Russian-speaking lawyer in Portugal, the strongest position is not simply: “I speak Russian.”

It is: “I understand two legal and business systems.”

Eastern Europe, real estate, investment, corporate structures, compliance, taxation and transaction support — this is where foreign experience can become an advantage.

Becoming a lawyer in Portugal is not just about receiving a new professional title.

It is a long process of readjustment: language, professional role, reputation and network.

Would you like a separate overview of legal master’s programmes at NOVA, FDUL and Católica?

Let me know in the comments ⬇️

11/05/2026

📖 FROM SALAZAR TO APRIL 25: 48 YEARS OF DICTATORSHIP AND THE ROAD TO REVOLUTION

Part of the author’s cycle PORTUGAL THROUGH THE AGES
On May 16, we invite you to a lecture dedicated to one of the most important and dramatic periods in modern Portuguese history — the rise of António de Oliveira Salazar and the beginning of the longest authoritarian regime in 20th-century Western Europe.
For 48 years, Portugal lived under dictatorship: secret police, censorship, the absence of civil freedoms, and fear as part of everyday life. At the same time, colonial wars were draining the country and weakening the regime from within.
Together, we will trace how this period led to the Carnation Revolution of April 25, 1974 — the day that changed Portugal’s history and became a symbol of freedom.
As always, the lecture will take place in a warm and welcoming atmosphere.

📅 Date: May 16, 2026
🕓 Time: 16:00–18:00
📍 Location: Excelsior Consulting Office
⚠️ Language: English
⚠️ Limited number of seats — please book your participation in advance:
Speaker: Filipe Barroso — historian, politician, and international relations expert.

Join us to understand why the regime lasted for almost half a century — and how Portugal reached the day that became a turning point on its road to freedom.

https://buytickets.at/excelsiorconsulting/2198007