12/08/2025
Based on the latest developments, Thailand faces a multi-dimensional risk from the Cambodian border crisis, which now includes:
๐ฅ Summary of Risks to Thailand
1. Labor Shock
โข Up to nearly 900,000 Cambodian workers have left or are expected to leave Thailand.
โข Sectors most affected: agriculture, construction, food processing, and hospitality.
โข Labor shortages are causing project delays, crop losses, and reduced factory output.
2. Trade Disruption
โข Border closures and restricted operating hours at key checkpoints are delaying shipments and disrupting logistics.
โข Thai exports to Cambodia in 2024 totaled 141.85 billion baht, with a trade surplus of 109.16 billion baht.
โข Daily trade losses are estimated at 500 million baht if closures persist.
โข Cambodia has banned Thai agricultural products, including fruits and vegetables, severely impacting Thai farmers and exporters.
3. Consumer Sentiment & Brand Damage
โข A โStop Using Thai Productsโ campaign is gaining traction in Cambodia, fueled by nationalist sentiment and political tensions.
โข Thai brands have halted advertising and marketing in Cambodia due to sensitivity and backlash.
โข Companies like Carabao and Pan Asia Footwear report sales losses and postponed market expansion plans.
4. Strategic Vulnerability
โข Cambodia is actively diversifying its import sources, turning to Vietnam and China for goods previously sourced from Thailand.
โข Cambodian SMEs are being encouraged to replace Thai products, especially in food and agriculture.
โข If successful, this could lead to long-term erosion of Thailandโs market share in Cambodia.
๐ Economic Risk Profile for Thailand
Risk Category Severity Description
Labor Shortage ๐ด High Immediate productivity losses in key sectors
Export Revenue Loss ๐ด High Up to 10 billion baht/month if full closures persist
Brand & Market Damage ๐ Medium Thai brands face reputational and operational setbacks
Strategic Trade Shift ๐ Medium Cambodiaโs pivot to Vietnam/China could reduce Thai influence
Investor Confidence ๐ก Moderate Border instability may deter investment in eastern provinces
๐งญ Conclusion
Thailand is facing a compound economic risk from the Cambodian crisis: labor shortages, trade disruptions, and reputational damage. If the situation persists beyond Q3 2025, the cumulative impact could:
โข Reduce GDP growth by 0.5โ1.2 percentage points
โข Trigger regional unemployment and inflation
โข Undermine Thailandโs long-term trade dominance in the CLMV region.