07/16/2026
Bank of Canada (BoC) holds its key rate again - for the sixth straight meeting in a row.
The BoC sees signs that the economy is improving. It faces a dilemma with its rate decision at present. Raise rates and you could hurt this recent modest growth and the economy. Cut rates and you risk inflation sticking around or taking right off. So they're holding and watching.
The BoC offered that its current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to its 2% target, in line with the MPR projections. However, economic uncertainty is still high.
This is a lot of hedging.
Translation:
A few months ago, the question was when cuts were coming. That's no longer the question. The path forward depends on things the BoC has no control over: a war, and trade negotiations that aren't close to settled -in fact, are an absolute roller-coaster.
For mortgages: No clear signal either way. Status quo is the most likely short-term outcome. Important to note: the BoC justifies its decisions on historical data, but that's always looking in the rearview mirror. By the time the rate changes, the conditions driving it have usually been building for a while.
Next BoC date: Sept 2
