11/20/2023
Some thoughts and statistics on our local real estate market and where we may be heading ,
At present, the city of GP has a notably low inventory with only 226 active listings for sale, and the county of GP follows suit with 180 active listings. Over the last six months, rental rates have consistently risen, contributing to a near-zero vacancy rate in the area. With the combination of diminished inventory for sale and escalating rents, there exists the potential for a long-awaited catalyst in our area—a surge in the value of homes, which has been elusive for an extended period. Both the city of GP and the County of GP appear undervalued in terms of home prices when compared to other regions in the province and across Canada.
While the predominant market discussions revolve around interest rates and their possible impact on a nationwide slowdown and price adjustments, a closer examination of year-to-date statistics for 2023 against 2022 in the city and county of GP reveals a nuanced narrative. In 2022, the city recorded 1385 homes sold year-to-date with an average sale price of $327,000. In 2023, there were 1272 homes sold year-to-date with an average sale price of $323,000. Similarly, in the county of GP, 2022 saw 451 homes sold year-to-date with an average sale price of $458,000, compared to 439 homes sold year-to-date in 2023 with an average sale price of $441,000. Despite discussions about changing market dynamics, the figures suggest a more resilient market than initially anticipated for our area.
Upon scrutinizing MLS listing and sales data over the past four weeks, a noticeable trend emerges—an ongoing decline in the number of homes listed each week. While lower inventory levels are customary for this time of year, the current situation is remarkable, marking the lowest levels in both the city of GP and the county of GP since 2013/2014. Despite the region being in a buyer's market for several years, it is intriguing that the market has not yet transitioned into seller's market territory, although signs indicate it may be on the horizon. The looming question is: How long will a seller's market endure in our area?
Reviewing the past four weeks in our market area, the city of GP has seen an average of 22 homes sold per week, with an average of 252 active listings. In the same period, the county has experienced an average of 7 homes sold per week, accompanied by an average of 180 active listings. Compared to the same timeframe last year (2022), there is a notable contrast. In 2023, the city witnessed a 35% decrease in the number of homes listed for sale, coupled with a 27% increase in sales over the past four weeks compared to last year. Similarly, the county experiences a 24% decrease in the number of homes listed for sale in the same period in 2023, with sales remaining constant at 7 per week, year over year.
One plausible explanation for the low inventory levels could be sellers choosing to remain in their current homes, refraining from listing due to having a lower interest rate locked in for the next 1 to 3 years. Perhaps they are awaiting further clarity on future rates before deciding to sell and rebuy. If this trend persists, and inventory levels stay low while the buying pool remains steady or grows, there is potential for prices to trend upwards, leading to a slight seller's market in our area. This would be in stark contrast to the rest of the country, which seems to be moving in the opposite direction towards a buyer's market. Historically, our market has maintained a unique position, persisting in a buyer's market while other regions experienced growth in home values and a seller's market. Perhaps now is our moment to experience growth and prosperity in our local economy while the rest of the country takes a different trajectory.
The next 6 to 18 months will undoubtedly be intriguing as we observe the unfolding dynamics and determine the market's trajectory in the GP area.
