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If people are not working how can they pay their bills?Roy Morgan has underemployed and unemployment at 23% or 3,284,000...
23/08/2020

If people are not working how can they pay their bills?
Roy Morgan has underemployed and unemployment at 23% or 3,284,000 people receiving Jobkeeper or Jobseeker!

How many of these people can continue to pay their mortgages when receiving the reduced payments?

Understand this.
At 10 % drop means that $500k property is now $450k
Simple right!
Now consider the LVR or Loan to Valuation Ratio.
If the economy is not the best the banks reduce their risk and increase how much you must have to secure that loan.

Lets consider they go to a conservative 80% LVR

You bought that $500k property 5 years ago on 5% deposit. You only needed $25k to get in. You owe $495k. You have been paying $2,518 a month for 5 years. Or just over $30k a year or in the 5 years you have paid $151,000. At 5 years you owe $447,480.26.
You now need to refinance!
But wait the property is only worth $450,000 and on an 80% LVR YOU NEED $90,000 EQUITY OR DEPOSIT , YOU ONLY HAVE$2,500!

The bank requires you find another $87,500 before they will rewrite your mortgage!

What options do you have?

Hi Guys, In this video I talked about how Forced sales have begun and give an Australian property Market update. Over the past month there has been increase ...

Ffft, drop of 30% minimum required to get the household income to loan ratio back in shape, this correction will last a ...
27/05/2019

Ffft, drop of 30% minimum required to get the household income to loan ratio back in shape, this correction will last a number of years and will grind down IMHO. Problem is net dyers streadily increasing now for decades ahead - into 1962 add 80 = 2042.

To correct to Western world ratios, property would need to lose 65/70% - so at 30% we are still the lucky country.

 

13/05/2019

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Westpac’s landmark court gives us an insight into the future

Hi Bruce,


Westpac is back in court.

Oh no.

What have they done this time?

This is actually a really unusual case, and it’s going to have massive implications for the housing market.

Effectively Westpac are being sued by ASIC – the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

ASIC is having a go at them for breaking their responsible lending obligations.

Think of it like a pub’s Responsible Service of Alcohol obligations.

Pubs can’t give people more booze than they can handle.

Banks can’t give people more credit than they can handle.

And how did Westpac do that?

Effectively they relied too heavily on the HEM – the Household Expenditure Measure.

This is a sort of statistical average of what a theoretical household might spend… ... if they were poor.

That is, if your household spending actually lined up with HEM, then you are probably living on the poverty line.

What ASIC is arguing is that the banks shouldn’t be using HEM to calculate serviceability and how much people can actually borrow.

For most people, it’s simply just unrealistic. And ASIC argues that because Westpac was over-using HEM, they were lending people more money than they should of.

They were lending irresponsibly.

But this is where it gets interesting.

Westpac isn’t disputing the fact.

In fact, ASIC and Westpac have been through all this before.

They went to court and Westpac admitted that it had breached the National Consumer Credit Protection Act and agreed to pay a $35 million fine. $35 million buckeroonies.

It was the largest civil penalty in history.

But then, in a move that shocked everybody, the Federal court refused to approve the settlement.

Nup. Not having it fellahs.

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At the time, Justice Nye Perram’s main criticism was that ASIC and Westpac did not actually agree on how the law had been broken.

Specifically, both sides were unable to agree on how many breaches Westpac had committed and failed to adequately explain why the $35 million penalty was appropriate.

“Admirable ingenuity has been applied by the parties’ advisers to the task of drafting the consent orders so as to gloss over the very real differences which exist between them…”

In the ultimately rejected settlement, Westpac had admitted that about 100,000 loans used the HEM in instances where customers’ living expenses were higher than the benchmark.

That’s a lot.

But returning to court, Westpac is now arguing that their approval systems are more ‘nuanced’ that ASIC appreciates.

Westpac’s lawyer said ASIC’s case was based on a “19th-century” notion of loan assessments being a simple formula of income minus expenses and argued that the bank’s “21st-century” assessment system was more complex.

That is, ASIC is about 200 years behind the game!

We’ll see how far they get with that one.

But this is potentially going to have a huge impact on the lending market and on the housing market more broadly. What’s really at question here is automated approvals processes, and how much time and energy borrowers and banks need to put into calculating serviceability.

The more time and energy required, the more expensive the loan process is going to be.

And if ASIC wins and demands that the banks use much tighter credit assessments, that’s going to cut back on credit too.

That will put a little hand-brakey on the market.

The boom of recent years was largely driven by a pretty easy credit environment.

It seems to be coming to an end.

P.S. One way to boost bank favour when they are looking at you is to boost your cashflow - this style of investing will help you do that. Get onto today's call here.

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Our postal address: 242A Waterdale Rd, Ivanhoe VIC 3079

Is this the start ?My question is a product any product needs to be affordable to the market sector it is being sold int...
16/07/2018

Is this the start ?
My question is a product any product needs to be affordable to the market sector it is being sold into.

Housing has out paced wage growth in Australia for many years.

In the 80's you could buy a house for 4 times average wage.

Now you need 2 maybe 3 average wage earners to rent of purchase a property!

There is a real issue here and when rates start the bubble will burst !!

Australian home prices fell at a faster pace last week, led by declines in all mainland state capitals except for Brisbane.

05/06/2018

Australian property will never crash, of course not as it's different this time, surely.

05/06/2018

Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about the housing bubble situation in many cities across Australia, mainly Sydney as well ...

04/10/2017
28/09/2017

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