08/22/2023
The economy continues to be characterized by both encouraging signs and reasons for pause. Interest rates remain on the uptrend and are likely to continue for the near term as Treasury rates respond to ongoing strength in the underlying economic data. At the same time, new home sales and new residential construction give reasons for hope that home sales will continue to help bolster the overall economy. In addition, the backbone of economic growth—consumer spending—continues to show strength despite many headwinds that suggested retail sales would have begun to slow by now. These are all signs that the Fed may be closer to achieving its soft landing, but the leading index suggests that we should remain cautious in our outlook.
