13/05/2026
*Federal Budget and Immigration*
Australiaโs migration policy is increasingly about targeted immigration.
A few changes stand out:
โข The permanent Migration Program remains at 185,000 places, where net overseas migration (NOM) is now expected to remain higher than previously forecast. Treasury has revised NOM upward to 295,000 in 2025โ26 and 245,000 in 2026โ27, reflecting lower departure rates among temporary migrants and continued strong arrivals from New Zealand, supported by Australiaโs relatively strong labour market. And while NOM has come down sharply from its post-pandemic peak โ with reporting noting a 44 per cent fall to 305,000 in 2024โ25 โ it still remains above the pre-pandemic average of around 230,000.
โข The planned points test reform looks like the tail end of the "Migration Strategy" review process undertaken over the last three years. Prioritising better educated, higher-skilled and younger migrants suggests a more targeted approach, rather than the more one-size-fits-all model we currently have in a more refined form. There is no clear implementation timeline in the budget, our hunch is that it will be end of 2026.
โข Another major shift is the priority for onshore applicants for skilled migration. It suggests the government is leaning more heavily toward people who are already here, already participating in the labour market, and easier to transition into permanent pathways. The reported figure that only 55,110 places (approx. 30%) would remain for offshore applicants reinforces that direction.
โข Migration is also being used more directly as a workforce tool. The $85.2 million commitment to faster skills assessments and licensing, and the goal of bringing in up to 4,000 additional skilled trades workers each year, shows how strongly labour shortages are shaping migration settings.
โข At the same time, the government is pairing migration access with tighter integrity settings. The extra $27 million over next two years to tackle migrant worker exploitation and strengthen compliance reinforces a trend we have already seen over the last year or so: migration remains essential, but it is increasingly being framed alongside stronger safeguards and enforcement.
โข The Working Holiday Maker program is also being pulled further into this control framework. Expanding the use of ballots to manage numbers, reduce barriers to work and create a fairer allocation process suggests the government wants this stream to be more regulated and less reactive. In practical terms, that could mean a less flexible pathway for some applicants and a more managed intake overall.
Despite a stable permanent program, the broader public debate will still be shaped by net overseas migration forecasts and temporary flows โ which is why public perception and official program settings often do not line up neatly - a separate topic of discussion for another time.
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